Buoyant economic growth and signs of recovering investment are paired with slowing wage dynamics, easing upside risks to the current disinflation trend. With CPI inflation approaching the National Bank of Poland's target, the central bank may continue with policy easing. We expect another 25bp rate cut in December
It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November
Yesterday's PMI showed a mixed picture in the region, with the Czech Republic's lower-than-expected, while Poland and Hungary surprised with higher-than-expected readings. Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with our estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory.
The tone of NBP President Adam Glapinski’s press conference suggested openness to another interest rate cut in November. The new inflation projection, and macroeconomic data published before the November Council meeting will be important in shaping this decision. We assess the probability of another cut in November to be well above 50%
We expected CPI inflation to increase slightly in September from August amid a shallower annual decline in fuel prices – but low food prices surprisingly kept the headline figure unchanged, bolstering the argument for more rate cuts. Even so, we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to postpone the move until November
Plenty of Fed speakers this week will clarify the FOMC’s policy views after Chair Powell’s cautious remarks last week. With the Dot Plot signalling two more cuts this year, we don’t expect much support for the dollar, which is looking moderately expensive in the short-term. PMIs across developed countries and the US PCE are the other highlights this week
The MPC wraps up its first post-summer holiday meeting on 3 September, and we expect a 25bp rate cut as policymakers attempt to adjust the monetary stance to lower inflation. As we see inflation sustainably returning to target, we’re still pencilling in another cut later in the year, likely in November
Having enjoyed a brief session on Friday of unalloyed joy as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, financial markets may now face some uncertainty on political developments in France and the US. We're still happy with a bearish story for the dollar, but it might have to be the more defensive Japanese yen or Swiss franc which takes the lead now
Although Europe faces significant housing shortages, residential construction is unlikely to rise this year. Permits for new homes are increasing, but growth remains slow. The infrastructure sector continues to grow, but significant gains from the new NATO agreement are unlikely
The President of the National Bank of Poland first called yesterday's cut as an adjustment of rates, not the beginning of a cycle of cuts. Finally, he signalled a September cut with the target rate seen in the range of 3-3.5%. We see a 50 basis point cut in September and a target rate of 3.5% in 2026
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) surprised the market by cutting the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) interest rates by 25 basis points. In our view, this decision is fully justified by the inflation prospects and the weak economic outlook. We expect further rate cuts after the summer holidays
The downward revision of May's CPI off the back of lower core inflation increases the likelihood that the National Bank of Poland may kick off its monetary easing cycle at its upcoming meeting in July. The picture should be a lot clearer in September, though, so it's a close call. We'll be keeping a close eye on any communication from the central bank.
After a very quiet week, the local story is back in focus for markets. Today, we will see retail sales in Poland for January. Goods spending remains subdued, but has improved after a poor third quarter.
