A revision of the eurozone's long-term growth outlook would have a significant upward impact on euro swap rates. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but in our view should build gradually over time. In the US, it's a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s lots going on in the pipes of the money markets as repo tightness persists
In a dovish turn, the Philippines’ central Bank, the BSP, has cut rates by 25bp to 4.75%, citing softening growth and subdued inflation. Infrastructure spending concerns and corruption scandals add downside risks to our 2026 GDP outlook. The chances of a final 25bp rate cut in December have increased meaningfully
The Euro area composite flash PMI improved to 50.4 in March (vs. 50.2 in February), a touch below consensus and close to our own expectations. The improvement was led by the manufacturing output index, which increased by 1.8pt to 50.7, the highest level in more than three years, while the services activity index edged down slightly to 50.4.
