Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now
Our latest ING Consumer Research survey sheds light on what European consumers are worried about – and what they believe governments should prioritise in spending
Until the corporate savings rate attains a normal negative level and structural deflationary pressures are eliminated, the policy mix of monetary and fiscal policies should maintain the expanding power of the Japanese economy. The increased predictability of firms’ sustained nominal GDP expansion would cause firms to shift their management strategies from cost cutting to investment.
Italy’s primary balance for 2024 proved to be better than expected, mitigating the increase in the public-debt ratio.
FX market in “wait & see” mode ahead of Trump tariff deadline.
