US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 19
Today’s story was one of cautious optimism for global trade, as both Washington and Beijing struck a more constructive tone.
The week kicks off on a mixed note. Last week's Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut gave markets a boost, but news that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will begin reducing its ETF holdings unsettled global risk sentiment on Friday.
Risk sentiment remains resilient and largely unaffected by factors such as French politics. While this should support EUR rates grinding higher and spreads – outside of France – still tighter, plenty of risks are looming. US rates are another directional driver, and today US data is in focus ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
MKT INTEL VIEWS: NVDA delivered a solid print (rev +56%y/y) but the stock is down as this was the smallest % increase in 2 years and results were a bit light of expectations (see our spec sales take here). The stock market reaction across Asia Tech seems to suggest the AI trade remains intact, although reports that China chipmakers are aiming to triple AI chip output next year also helped (within SHCOMP, Tech is the only sector in the green this morning as 85% of stocks are lower).
Stocks closed higher after a choppy trading session, falling early and then rebounding as investors made last- minute bets to position themselves ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements due later in the day.
Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.
The announcement by US President, Donald Trump, of 25% tariffs on all car and car part imports into the US weighed on sentiment in Asia. Trump also threatened more tariffs on the EU and Canada if they work against the US. Sentiment received some support from Trump continuing to say he will be lenient on reciprocal tariffs.
Concerns over the US growth outlook were amplified by Friday’s weak consumer spending data. Nevertheless, a recovery in tech stocks led US equity prices higher. Government bond yields were lower, as market pricing for the fed funds rate switched to price in more interest rates cuts this year.
Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
