The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance
The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall.
Every time you think the AI rally has topped out, it finds another gear. Yesterday was one of those days... Nvidia surged nearly 4% to a fresh ATH after reports that it will deepen its partnership with OpenAI to build massive new data centers and AI infrastructure.
This week could have started calmly, with investors digesting Friday's policy shift at the Federal Reserve (Fed), consolidating recent gains and repositioning ahead of the all-important Nvidia earnings due Wednesday. But instead, Donald Trump chose to keep markets on edge by announcing the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud.
Earlier in August, we published our monthly FX update. That was centred around the view that the last line of defence for the dollar – a resilient jobs market – had started to capitulate with large payrolls revisions. In this note, we discuss our latest thinking and why we are looking for 1.20+ levels through 2026
It's not every day I compare the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies. But amid the noise, the stunts and the audience's appreciation and shock, this is a plot worth following
Ahead of the tariff announcements markets are trading cautiously. Asian stock markets are marginally higher whilst European futures are indicating a marginally softer opening. UST yields are up but have mainly been going sideways during Asian hours and the Eurex complex is essentially unchanged from last night.
• Gold prices rallied just shy of 10% in March, surpassing USD 3,100/oz to extend the year-to-date gains to 19% (after rising 27% in 2024).
• A surge in investment demand is behind the latest moves, with comments by US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as well as weak US consumer survey data, amplifying market fears as we approach the 2 April tariff announcements. The acceleration of ETF buying marks a sharp reversal from the outflows of this time last year.
Wall Street ended sharply lower, dragged down by losses in Nvidia and Tesla as investors awaited information about long-promised U.S. tariffs on automotive imports. Shares of Tesla fell 5.58% and General Motors ended 3.14% lower. "Markets hate the tariff uncertainty, especially when it pertains to autos. Autos are ground zero for the negative economic impacts of tariffs," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
PMI data released today will be closely scrutinised to gauge how the eurozone economy has navigated uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariffs threats. Besides some sentiment effect, it is too early to assess the impact on the economy of Germany’s bold policy response to recent geopolitical events, with a commitment to heavily invest domestically.
Diplomatic efforts have intensified to stop the fighting between both Russia and Ukraine as well as Israel and Hamas. But a durable resolution to both conflicts will not be easy to achieve. The public disagreement in the White House between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart underlined the challenges.
t the time of writing, we estimate that Ukraine sovereign credit is already pricing a ~60% probability of a lasting ceasefire. Investor optimism on European equities has been strong so far this year, and the potential for a peace deal has added fuel to a ~10% rally year to date in European equities.
Canada's main stock index closed lower as escalating global trade tensions fueled risk-aversion, with strong bank earnings failing to boost market sentiment.
The S&P/TSX composite index fell 0.79% to end at 25,128.24, following three consecutive sessions of gain.
The U.S. dollar was rose 0.75% against its Canadian counterpart to C$1.4445, after touching its weakest intraday level since February 4 at 1.4442. It was the fifth straight day of declines for the currency.
