Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Buoyant economic growth and signs of recovering investment are paired with slowing wage dynamics, easing upside risks to the current disinflation trend. With CPI inflation approaching the National Bank of Poland's target, the central bank may continue with policy easing. We expect another 25bp rate cut in December
Economic growth in Poland remains robust (3.4% year-on-year in 2Q) and is more buoyant than in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Industry is facing the same headwinds as CEE peers, and construction is stagnant while services are solidly expanding. Consumption growth should allow for near-4% YoY growth in the second half and 3.5% GDP in 2025
The Polish economy grew by 3.4%YoY in the second quarter, compared to 3.2%YoY in the first quarter. While the flash estimate did not provide a breakdown of growth components, high-frequency indicators suggest continued expansion in the services sector, stagnation in industry, and a contraction in construction
