Upside inflation risks are receding while worries about the jobs market are mounting. The Federal Reserve is expected to respond with another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday, and could also bring QT to a conclusion
Global risk assets are bid on the view that this week's Trump-Xi meeting will be a positive one. A 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday should also help the tone, but that is very much priced in. With the People's Bank of China continuing to fix USD/CNY lower, we favour a mild downside bias to the dollar at the start of the week
Jobless claims dropped back sharply yesterday, a rare positive development for the US jobs market and the dollar. But we still think the greenback is due to give up its post-Fed gains in the near term. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised with a hawkish vote split as it held rates unchanged today, raising the chances of an October hike and JPY outperformance
Lisa Cook is challenging her dismissal in court, and markets are seemingly staying away from pricing in any substantial dovish shifts at the FOMC beyond what can be derived from data and Powell’s remarks. But the dollar’s downside risks have increased, even if that won’t show in the near term. Today’s focus will be on inflation data in the US and eurozone
