It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
Pricing in Czech production points to strength in domestic sectors such as services and construction, while declining prices in industry indicate that underlying fragility persists. We see potential underperformance of the eurozone as the sword of Damocles for Czech exporters. The Czech National Bank will live in a double-faceted world for some time
Plenty of Fed speakers this week will clarify the FOMC’s policy views after Chair Powell’s cautious remarks last week. With the Dot Plot signalling two more cuts this year, we don’t expect much support for the dollar, which is looking moderately expensive in the short-term. PMIs across developed countries and the US PCE are the other highlights this week
The industry's annual price drop deepened in July, marking six consecutive months of negative price trends. Weak demand from key trading partners continues to weigh on prices for capital and intermediate goods, while consumer goods prices are still rising. Strong price activity in food production will further drive up the CPI
