It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life
The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased
It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
Yesterday's PMI showed a mixed picture in the region, with the Czech Republic's lower-than-expected, while Poland and Hungary surprised with higher-than-expected readings. Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with our estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory.
The dollar remains bid as the market continues to question whether the Fed needs to cut rates to 3.00/3.25% after all. Also helping the dollar may be tight money market conditions as the US Treasury restocks its cash balances. In the absence of official data, the focus this week will be on insights into the US job market from private sector releases
The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position
EUR/USD has nudged through resistance at 1.1650 in quiet markets. The softer dollar has been the driver, although we wonder whether some compromise on the French budget is helping too.
Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.
The dollar is drifting lower ahead of tomorrow evening's FOMC meeting. Even the market's favourite high-yield currency play, the Turkish lira, got a lift following news of a delay in a political event risk. Today's focus will be on US retail sales and perhaps Canadian CPI as well, ahead of expected rate cuts in the US and Canada tomorrow
In a quiet start to the week for FX markets, EUR/USD is trading steady despite French debt being downgraded on Friday night by Fitch. That downgrade has already been priced into French debt markets, and instead, Wednesday's FOMC meeting is set to be the dominant event for EUR/USD this week. We also have central bank meetings in the UK, Japan, Canada and Norway
After today's Labor Day holiday, this week's US calendar is packed with labour market data, culminating in Friday's August jobs report. Elsewhere, investors don't quite know what to make of an appeals court ruling Trump's universal tariffs illegal. Could it be a story of lost revenues weighing on the Treasury market? We expect the dollar to stay soft
US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they will unless there are hints in that direction from Fed members or if the jobs data falls much further. Today, Norges Bank should hold rates, with some minor hawkish risk
US core inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM in July, but markets don’t think that is enough to prevent a September Fed cut. That paves the way to more USD weakness, although some caution may prevail ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. The market is adjusting expectations, but the risk still seems asymmetrical for CEE currencies
