The dollar has found a little support at the start of the week. Chinese authorities have now turned to fixing USD/CNY a little higher, which removes one of the dollar's negative impulses from last week. The highlight of an otherwise quiet session will be today's eurozone flash CPI release for August and the US ISM business confidence data
Lisa Cook is challenging her dismissal in court, and markets are seemingly staying away from pricing in any substantial dovish shifts at the FOMC beyond what can be derived from data and Powell’s remarks. But the dollar’s downside risks have increased, even if that won’t show in the near term. Today’s focus will be on inflation data in the US and eurozone
The same day President Trump installed an (interim) dovish ally in the FOMC, the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone, narrowly voting in favour of another 25bp rate cut. The US calendar is very quiet today, and some focus will be on Canada’s jobs figures. EUR/USD may wait until next week for a break above 1.170
Today, in addition to monthly data from Poland, the main event is the rate decision of the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). Rates are likely to remain unchanged at 6.50% again, with the focus more on the tone of the press conference. June headline inflation was one-tenth above the NBH forecast, but underlying momentum seems to be seeing some gradual improvement. At the same time, the economy continues to surprise on the downside.
After a very quiet week, the local story is back in focus for markets. Today, we will see retail sales in Poland for January. Goods spending remains subdued, but has improved after a poor third quarter.
