
Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks
Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market

Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market

The oil market rallied yesterday, boosted by the strength of the refined products market

Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds

The oil market continues to digest the potential impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Meanwhile, the risk of sanctions continues to provide a boost to middle distillates

Oil prices came under pressure as noise grows around the potential for further supply increases from OPEC+, while US government shutdown fears provide a further boost to precious metals

Following a technology-fueled surge on Wall Street, Asian stocks were trading near a record high, although shares in Hong Kong and mainland China declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulled back from its earlier highs to trade mostly flat. Stocks in Hong Kong fell 1% as the city was dealing with its most severe typhoon since 2018.

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is set to be a non-event, with the group expected to keep output levels unchanged

The Asian session saw a shaky start as US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will be removed effective immediately.
The immediate reaction saw a gauge of the US dollar retreat as much as 0.3% and gold rose as much as 0.6% to around $3385/oz.

Oil prices came under pressure as US secondary tariffs on India come into effect, taking the total levy to 50%

Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.

Stocks closed higher after a choppy trading session, falling early and then rebounding as investors made last- minute bets to position themselves ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements due later in the day.

Ahead of the tariff announcements markets are trading cautiously. Asian stock markets are marginally higher whilst European futures are indicating a marginally softer opening. UST yields are up but have mainly been going sideways during Asian hours and the Eurex complex is essentially unchanged from last night.

Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.

Friday's session was marked by the announcement that an agreement has been reached with the Greens in Germany, notably on the €500bn infrastructure fund, of which €100bn will be dedicated to the energy transition, but also on exemptions to the debt brake.

• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday
• Data and events: US retail sales
• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement


Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.

The markets do not really seem to share Donald Trump's indifference to the short-term impact of his policies on the US economy.

Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
















































































