EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar. Yesterday's release of the German ZEW expectations index for November was not particularly encouraging. However, the aggregate ZEW figure for the eurozone as a whole ticked up, questioning whether Germany is increasingly becoming an outlier.
Improving eurozone hard data and a stable ECB mean the EUR swap curve should steepen from here. The complexity of estimating Dutch pension reform flows doesn't help the case for a steeper 10s30s. In the US, Treasuries are trading heavily in post-FOMC, and look like they can attempt to continue to do so
We doubt markets expect the French prime minister to find a solution by Macron's imposed deadline. With little else to work with, supply pressures might be leading on Wednesday. Overall, euro rates seem well-positioned for now, but over the long term, we see the 10Y swap rate settling at a higher level
The Dutch central bank may start sending out more approvals for the transitioning of Dutch pension funds from a defined benefit to a defined contribution model this week. But with the 1 January transition date fast approaching, we may also start hearing about more delays. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown could weigh on economic sentiment
