Wage growth is slowing quickly, at a time when the wider jobs market keeps cooling. The UK is becoming less of an outlier on inflation, and we expect a rate cut on Thursday and two further moves next year
Oil prices traded to their lowest level since late October amid expectations of a surplus, while European gas prices appear to have found a floor for now
Italy’s industrial production data for October points to renewed weakness, tempering expectations of a stronger economic pickup in the final quarter of the year
Inflation in Hungary decreased in November, but this was mainly due to base effects and government measures. We might be starting on the downward part of the rollercoaster right now – but that means the ride may be set to shoot upwards next
Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
The federal government has unveiled a new agreement to finalise the 2026 budget and outline the main direction for economic policy in the coming years. While these steps will help reduce the public deficit, further action will be necessary to stabilise the debt ratio
The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life
US jobs growth was stronger than expected in September, but unemployment also rose amid workers returning to the labour market and seeking jobs. Given the Fed's recent hawkish shift and the lack of official data scheduled before the 10 December FOMC meeting, it is understandable that the market thinks the next move won't come until early 2026
Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
We're not overly concerned about tightness in US repo of late. It does show that the liquidity environment is uneven. It appears that eligible standing repo participants don't need it, as there are minimal asks for it. Frustrating for the Fed, as it sees the effective funds rate creeping higher. T-bill buying from 1 December is far from perfect. But it will do
October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
China's key activity indicators continued to slow across the board in October as policymakers appear to be delaying further policy support. This year's growth target is likely to require minimal additional support to be reached, but supportive policies will be necessary to achieve long-term goals
Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa