In our view, the single most important secular trend in the options market is the growth of ETFs/MutualFunds that systematically trade options. Arun Prakash has done some great work cataloging each strategy to paint a picture of the AUM in specific flows (calls/puts, expirations, moneyness) to help investors understand the growth of these strategies.
A strong finish to last week by US equities helped buoy investor sentiment at the start of this week in Asia. Upside surprises in China’s cyclical data also helped boost investor sentiment. Holding back sentiment, however, were US Treasury Scott Bessent suggesting the recent US equity market rout was a healthy correction and weak Chinese house prices data showing the sector was still in a slump.
We anticipate further volatility amid tariff concerns, but we continue to expect gains for the S&P 500 and see the index reaching 6,600 by year-end. We believe a solid US economy, healthy corporate earnings growth, and further advancements in AI should support the rally. We also see opportunities in Asian ex-Japan equities, including those in Taiwan and India. In Europe, we like structured strategies on German equities.
Wells Fargo sued JPMorgan Chase to recover losses for investors in a $481 million commercial real estate loan that was allegedly based on a fraudulently inflated financial metric. The lawsuit pits the fourth-largest U.S. bank against the largest, with Wells Fargo accusing JPMorgan of turning a blind eye during due diligence in pursuit of millions of dollars in fees.
Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.
The markets do not really seem to share Donald Trump's indifference to the short-term impact of his policies on the US economy.
J. Safra Sarasin Group, a Global Leader in Private Banking and Wealth Management, to Acquire a Majority Stake in Saxo Bank, a Leading International FinTech Bank for Investors, Traders, and Institutional (BaaS) partners.
Transaction Aimed at Enhancing the Global Long-term Potential of Both J. Safra Sarasin Group, with Client Assets of USD 247 Billion, and Saxo Bank, with USD 118 Billion in Client.
American exceptionalism, the main market theme since Trump's election in November, is clearly in a bad way, stoking the idea that American soft power is on the wane. Trump is certainly not solely to blame for this gradual deterioration. Rather, it is the promise of a rebound that seems to be vanishing.
Busy end of week with European defence push, ECB monetary policy decision, US tariff pause and NFP. No let-up in the news flow as the week draws to an end. Friday will be marked by the publication of the February Employment Situation Report, with our US economists expecting 180 thousand job creations (see NFP Preview), while Thursday’s session was punctuated by an abundant news flow:
Despite all the noise around DOGE actions, spending cuts, and tariffs, we don’t think there has been anything these last few weeks that has definitively proven that the actual delivery of tariffs or spending cuts are going to be worse than expected.
Goldman Sachs plans to trim its staffing by 3% to 5% in an annual performance review process this spring, said a source familiar with the matter who declined to be identified discussing personnel matters.
Tesla's sales of its China-made electric vehicles dropped 49.2% in February from a year earlier to 30,688 cars, the lowest since August 2022, as the U.S. automaker faces pressure from Chinese rivals in a relentless smart EV price war.
China retaliated swiftly against fresh U.S. tariffs with hikes to import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, moving the world's top two economies a step closer towards an all-out trade war.
Target warned that uncertainty around tariffs would weigh on the retailer's profit in the first quarter and doubled down on sourcing more of its products from countries including Guatemala.
Business executives have been in a state of limbo over Donald Trump's fluctuating plans to impose major tariffs since he took office in January.
Markets were spent most of the overnight session reacting to the implementation of tariffs by the US. However, news of a possible reversal late in the session saw reversals.
The DXY fell as implications of tariffs on the US economy are considered. The euro outperformed rising to a multi-month high following the announcement of a defence fund in Germany.
An increase in risk sentiment saw bond yields jump while equities finished lower.
US equity market recorded the steepest daily losses since mid-December and USD depreciated notably as President Trump confirmed that import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will go up, and a weaker manufacturing survey added to market concerns about wakening US growth.
The fundamental problem for Indonesia remains weak growth. This continues to be reflected best in the chart of declining nominal GDP growth, as previous discussed here (see GREED & fear - Powell as party pooper, 19 December 2024), whereas real GDP growth has been extraordinarily stable hovering around 5% for the past 11 years, excluding the Covid period (see Exhibit 21). Nominal GDP growth slowed to 6.0% last year, down from 15.4% in 2022 and 15% in 2010.
In stock terms the sell-off has been concentrated in the more high beta domestic cyclical sectors, such as property, infrastructure and industrials which were the big outperformers last year. This is also why GREED & fear’s India portfolio, which is heavily positioned in these sectors, outperformed the Nifty by 18.7% in US dollar terms on a total-return basis in the year to 17 December but has since underperformed by 12.1% (see Exhibit 9).
t the time of writing, we estimate that Ukraine sovereign credit is already pricing a ~60% probability of a lasting ceasefire. Investor optimism on European equities has been strong so far this year, and the potential for a peace deal has added fuel to a ~10% rally year to date in European equities.
Concerns over the US growth outlook were amplified by Friday’s weak consumer spending data. Nevertheless, a recovery in tech stocks led US equity prices higher. Government bond yields were lower, as market pricing for the fed funds rate switched to price in more interest rates cuts this year.
Stocks ended down as Nvidia results failed to rekindle an AI rally. Treasury yields rose ahead of the crucial PCE data. The dollar was up as tariff threats loom, pushing gold prices down. Oil climbed on supply concerns after U.S. President Doanld Trump revoked Chevron’s Venezuela deal.
Apple shareholders voted to keep the tech giant's diversity, equity and inclusion policies, a win for management which had opposed efforts by a conservative group to scrap the program. The vote at the iPhone maker's annual meeting was seen as a test of shareholder views about the value of DEI programs, which many companies added or beefed up starting in 2020 amid the Black Lives Matter movement.
Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
A drop in consumer sentiment brought fresh concerns about the US economic growth. Most major equity indices sold off and government bonds rallied, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping 11bp to 4.29%. Market digested news that Ukraine is going to sign a minerals deal with the US, and a confirmation from the US president that US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go up next week.
Yesterday was yet another ugly session for US stocks. The increasingly heavier weight of Trump talk, deteriorating relationships across the globe – except Russia – combined with higher inflation expectations on tariffs, the uptick in inflation and weakening expectations from US consumers are certainly to blame for the selloff in equities – that boost appetite in bonds, considered to be a safer investment option.
