US Q1 GDP – 27/04 – having seen the US consumer recover strongly in January with a retail sales surge of 3.2%, the edge has come off a little in recent months as consumer spending slowed in February and March, by -0.2% and -1% respectively.

The instability caused by the banking turmoil will also have affected economic output at the end of the quarter, although we probably won't know the full extent of that until we get later revisions. The strong labour market and resilience in wage growth seen in the first part of the quarter are likely to offer a strong personal consumption component. Expectations are for the US economy to slow slightly from 2.6% in Q4 to 2%, while personal consumption is expected to rebound strongly from the 1% seen in Q4.

Bank of Japan rate decision – 28/04 – with the recent weakness in the Japanese yen, and it being the first meeting as central bank governor for Kazuo Ueda all eyes will be on the Bank of Japan this week to see whether Ueda lays out the ground for a possible tweak to the bank's current yield curve control policy.

In comments earlier this month, Ueda was careful not to say too much that was different from his predecessor Kuroda. At his first press conference, Ueda stuck with the script of his predecessor by saying the current policy remained appropriate under current economic conditions.  With national core CPI in Japan currently at 3.8% and a 40-year high, it could be argued that a shift in policy is close, and could come by the end of Q2. On the flip side of that headline, CPI has slowed sharply from 4.3% in January to 3.2% in March, which is likely to offer encouragement to the doves, although the resilience of core prices, like elsewhere is a little concerning, and is likely to be a cause for concern.      

Germany Q1 GDP – 28/04 – there is a distinct possibility that the German economy could slide into recession when the latest Q1 GDP numbers are released.

Having contracted by -0.4% in Q4 we haven't seen a significant improvement in manufacturing PMIs over the quarter despite lower energy prices. If anything, economic activity has subsided with the March PMI sliding to 44.7 and its lowest level since 2020. Services sector activity has offered more encouragement with three readings above 50 over the quarter, although retail sales spending has been negative, sliding -0.3% and -0.4% in January and February.   

Read next: This week the US Q1 GDP is released. On Friday, Bank of Japan may shock the markets tweaking its yield curve control policy| FXMAG.COM

Associated British Foods H1 23 – 25/04 – seen some strong gains since the 10-year lows seen back in October last year, pushing to one-year highs back in February.

The rebound in the share price has been long overdue but still remains below the levels we saw pre-pandemic. All of the retail sector has faced challenges over the past 3 years but ABF's diverse business model has seen the company decent numbers across all of its businesses. In February the Primark owner upgraded its full-year outlook on all of its businesses including Primark. Adjusted operating profit and earnings are expected to be broadly in line with the previous year, despite higher costs. Total sales in the Primark business are expected to be 16% ahead of the same period last year which was disrupted by the tail end of Omicron restrictions in the Netherlands and Austria. The operating profit margin is expected to be above 8%, compared to last year's H1 margin of 11.7%. UK sales are expected to rise by 15%, while European and US sales growth is also expected to improve, by 18% and 12% respectively.  

Sainsbury FY 23 – 27/04 – despite the intense competition facing food retailers Sainsbury share price has been on a decent run since the record lows we saw back in October. 

When Sainsbury reported just after Christmas Q3 total sales rose by 5.2%, with grocery seeing a rise of 5.6%. Christmas grocery sales saw an acceleration to 7.1%. On a like-for-like quarterly basis, sales rose by 5.9%, with the Argos business generating a decent uplift as shoppers eschewed the flakiness of a strike-ridden Royal Mail service, by doing their grocery and Christmas shopping all at once. Guidance for a full-year underlying profit before tax was kept unchanged at the upper end of the guidance range of £630m to £690m, despite concerns over price and margin pressures, which continue to act as headwinds. At the end of March according to the latest Kantar survey, Sainsbury saw 12-week sales growth of 6.9%, which while behind Aldi and Lidl compared very favourably to its other peers. At the end of January, it was revealed that Bestway Group had taken a 3.45% stake in the business and suggested it could take a larger stake. While this has helped push the share price to its highest levels in over a year the obstacles to a bid remain high in that Bestway would need to convince Sainsbury's other two big shareholders, the Qatar Investment Authority as well as Daniel Kretinsky's Vesa Investment fund that they have a credible plan to take the business forward. One upside is that Bestway's position as a wholesaler could offer synergies for Sainsbury in any future relationship, given that Tesco already owns Booker.