COT Energy Speculators push Brent Crude Oil bearish bets to 14-week high

COT Energy Speculators push Brent Crude Oil bearish bets to 14-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent rise in bearish bets for the Brent Crude Oil (last day) futures bets. The speculative net position in the Brent Crude Oil futures has now seen higher bearish positions for three consecutive weeks. This comes after a streak of improving positions that culminated in speculator bets touching the least bearish level in the previous 167 weeks (on January 4th). The overall speculator standing in Brent oil have been in a continuous bearish position since December of 2013 (due to the unique positioning dynamics of the market) but positioning has been less and less bearish with crude oil prices rising in recent months. However, this recent 3-week streak of rising bearish bets brings the Brent net standing to the most bearish of the last fourteen weeks.

Joining Brent Crude Oil (-5,730 contracts) in falling this week were Natural Gas (-6,488 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (-12,366 contracts) and Gasoline (-1,184 contracts) while Heating Oil (3,173 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,177 contracts) saw higher bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-25-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,095,994 35 373,415 28 -420,646 61 47,231 82
Gold 572,078 39 220,151 58 -249,746 41 29,595 48
Silver 151,779 18 32,141 54 -47,684 52 15,543 33
Copper 205,771 30 26,481 61 -32,836 37 6,355 62
Palladium 9,034 11 -1,988 10 2,274 90 -286 28
Platinum 53,390 10 13,792 22 -19,227 82 5,435 38
Natural Gas 1,141,796 7 -124,535 41 97,541 62 26,994 47
Brent 224,561 59 -25,936 73 23,862 29 2,074 37
Heating Oil 360,969 38 18,000 69 -40,959 28 22,959 78
Soybeans 735,966 30 148,872 67 -112,799 39 -36,073 12
Corn 1,539,124 28 439,098 86 -389,471 16 -49,627 14
Coffee 274,327 40 61,643 93 -64,950 9 3,307 11
Sugar 875,995 12 121,283 62 -142,972 41 21,689 35
Wheat 390,266 29 11,661 57 -3,525 37 -8,136 63

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 373,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 385,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 35.8 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 55.8 2.4
– Net Position: 373,415 -420,646 47,231
– Gross Longs: 492,310 749,821 98,250
– Gross Shorts: 118,895 1,170,467 51,019
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.3 60.7 81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.3 12.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.8 44.2 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.3 33.6 3.2
– Net Position: -25,936 23,862 2,074
– Gross Longs: 39,888 99,224 9,298
– Gross Shorts: 65,824 75,362 7,224
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.3 29.5 37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 6.7 -20.4

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -124,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.5 42.7 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 34.1 2.2
– Net Position: -124,535 97,541 26,994
– Gross Longs: 233,870 487,342 51,865
– Gross Shorts: 358,405 389,801 24,871
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.6 47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -0.5 -10.1

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 49.2 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 67.6 4.0
– Net Position: 59,605 -67,195 7,590
– Gross Longs: 106,361 179,168 22,300
– Gross Shorts: 46,756 246,363 14,710
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 69.8 56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -5.3 12.5

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.8 49.8 13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 61.2 7.5
– Net Position: 18,000 -40,959 22,959
– Gross Longs: 60,678 179,923 50,189
– Gross Shorts: 42,678 220,882 27,230
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 27.6 77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.5 -21.8 25.0

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.3 28.6 1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.9 1.2 0.1
– Net Position: -14,100 13,537 563
– Gross Longs: 32,288 14,137 596
– Gross Shorts: 46,388 600 33
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 23.6 to 1 18.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.6 45.4 39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.1 21.0 1.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

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