Copper Spreads Strengthen as LME Inventories Decline and Chinese Steel Inventories Rise

Strong August Labour Report Poses Dilemma for RBA: Will Rates Peak or Continue to Rise?

Metals – Copper spreads strengthen

While LME copper prices remain under pressure given concerns over Chinese demand and a more hawkish Fed, LME copper spreads continue to strengthen, reflecting some tightness in the prompt market. The cash/3m spread rallied by more than $12/t yesterday to a backwardation of $31/t – the strongest we have seen this spread since November last year. Available inventories in LME warehouses continue to fall with on-warrant stocks yesterday falling by 4,400 tonnes to just 25,725 tonnes, the lowest since October 2021.

Recent data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) show that steel inventories at major Chinese steel mills climbed for a second consecutive week to 16.2mt in mid-June, up 2.64% compared to early June. Meanwhile, crude steel production at major mills rose by 1.4% from the abovementioned period to 2.26mt/d in mid-June.

Strong August Labour Report Poses Dilemma for RBA: Will Rates Peak or Continue to Rise?

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