Rebuilding EUR Longs, Shorting CAD: Long EURCAD for Growth Divergence and Positioning Asymmetry

• We re-add EUR longs after taking profit today on our long EURUSD spot trade as the pair hit our trailed stop. Eurozone investors are structurally short the EUR and a potential reallocation out of US equities could help the currency. 

• We think CAD shorts offers good risk-reward given sensitivity to US growth and the recent unwind in short positioning. 

• Trade idea: Long EURCAD. Entry 1.5522; Target 1.62; stop-loss 1.52; total allocation USD5mn.

CNY Fixing Breaches 7.20: Market Eyes 7.5, But PBoC Defense Still in Play

• The People’s Bank of China has set the USDCNY fixing above 7.20 for the first time since September 2023, and the market may interpret this as a green light for USDRMB to rise to 7.5 to offset the tariff impact. 

FOMC Outlook: Keeping Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

• We expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, keeping the fed funds range at 4.25%-4.50%. 

• The FOMC’s economic projections should begin to reflect prospects for higher, tariff-fueled inflation and softer US economic growth. 

• We see policy remaining on hold through year end and rate cuts restarting in Q1 2026. 

Swiss National Bank's February Reserves Report: No Evidence of Currency Intervention

On a monthly basis the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports reserves in foreign currency assets (including stocks and bonds).