Emini S&P March - It's make or break for Emini S&P today as we test:
The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000
The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012.
The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020.
In overbought conditions.
Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the December high, we have a 61.8% resistance at 4008.
Nasdaq March has recovered 50% of the December loss but the 1 week rising wedge should be negative.
We are testing the blue 100 day moving average.
We have a 3 month bear flag in the Emini Nasdaq as we test the red 200 week moving average resistance.
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Today's Analysis.
Emini S&P March - As we are in a bear trend there should be a good chance the trend resumes form here - it worked in August, but in December we burst above this this type of resistance before collapsing.
We have beaten the 200 day moving average at 3985 but a weekly close below here tonight would be more negative. Targets for shorts are 3950/40 & 3900/3890 today.
A weekly close above 4030 signals a bullish breakout & I have to take this as a medium term buy signal. A minimum 100 point jump would then be expected.
Nasdaq March break above 11510 can target 11650/700. If we continue higher look for 11900/950.
Holding below 11500 is more negative for today. Minor support at 11400/370. A break below 11320 is a sell signal in to next week.
Emini Dow Jones very close to my next target of 34450/500 yesterday. We are overbought but with no sell signal I cannot suggest a short at this stage. If we do reverse, I think it will be the Emini S&P & Nasdaq that leads the decline.
Until we get a sell signal, we can buy at support at 34100/050. Below 34000 however risks a slide to support at 33870/840.
