Powell did this time exactly what the markets wished for – no playing up tariffs inflation impact, but two cuts in 2025 prospects solidified. He even surprised in delivering less (tuned down in ambition) inflation focus for the Fed as such, giving more priority to the job market vs. relaxed inflation target. Exactly what stocks (all indices as predicted) were looking for, and so did gold, silver and Bitcoin too. Yields down, dollar down, and flirting with a longtime rising trendline starting in 2011 break. Should the weakness continue, that would further spur risk assets, knowing full well the huge Treasury debt issuance slated for these last two quarters of 2025.
First, I‘ll reveal the chart with scenarios for Friday‘s Jackson Hole, shared with all clients before the opening bell, and the accompanying opening sentence from premium daily analytics, „the greatest momentary risk is off-the-cuff Powell remarks, but I consider it likely stocks would see through these, and led by IWM, would turn up“. Sunday, I called for shallow pullback on Monday...
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 more of them, with commentaries.
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