Forex

Euro on the Brink – Will a Ukraine Peace Deal and Rising Defense Spending Save the Currency, or Will Tariffs Push It Lower?

While simmering trade tensions have been a key driver of FX markets this year, optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and stronger fiscal support, especially from defense spending, have also raised the prospects of a better outcome for European growth.

Goldman Sachs Outlook on EUR/USD: Trade Tensions, Ceasefire Optimism, and Tariff Risks

While simmering trade tensions have been a key driver of FX markets this year, optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and stronger fiscal support, especially from defense spending, have also raised the prospects of a better outcome for European growth. 

FX Options Strike Map Analysis: Impact on Volatility for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and GBP/USD

Related publications FX vol: How to read the FX options strike map, dated 17 October 

Brent Crude Prices Struggle Amid U.S. Sanctions, Supply Concerns, and Tariff Fears

• Brent crude oil prices are under pressure due to new US sanctions on Iran, potential increases in Iraqi oil exports from Kurdistan.
• US Consumer confidence recorded its worst print in 3 years weighing on market sentiment.
• Technical analysis shows the 100-day moving average is acting as significant resistance around the 75.32 level for Brent crude oil.

AUD/JPY Technical Outlook: Risk-Off Sentiment and Trade Tariffs Weigh on Aussie Dollar

• Revigorated US trade tariffs threat on Canada spark refresh weakness in commodities proxy currencies such as AUD.
• AUD/JPY may face further headwinds supported by a further narrowing of the 2-year yield spread premium between Australian and Japanese government bonds.
• A further risk-off in the major US stock indices may also trigger further weakness in the AUD/JPY.
• Watch the 93.65 potential major downside trigger level of the AUD/JPY.

January Inflation Unchanged at 2.5%, RBA Joins Easing Cycle

The Australian dollar has declined by 0.37% on Wednesday and is trading at 0.6320 in the European session. AUD/USD is down for a fourth consecutive trading day and has lost 1.2% during that time.

Japanese Yen Flexing Muscles as G-10's Best Performer Against the US Dollar

The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Wednesday.  In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.25, up 0.16% on the day.

EUR: What to make of the Ukraine mineral agreement?

European currencies remain reasonably supported and are taking the Ukraine mineral agreement as a positive and very possibly some kind of move towards a US security guarantee.

USD Outlook: Gaining Temporary Support Ahead of Rising Tariff Concerns

FX Daily: Refocus on fiscal proving dollar supportive. The dollar has found a little support overnight after the House passed a budget blueprint bill laying the groundwork for President Trump's tax-cutting agenda. The focus on fiscal might buy a little time for the dollar and distract from weaker consumer activity until the tariff agenda comes back into focus next week. USD/CAD is now the epicentre of tariffs

CEE Markets Brace for Key Economic Data Amid Fading Ukraine Sentiment

After a very quiet week, the local story is back in focus for markets. Today, we will see retail sales in Poland for January. Goods spending remains subdued, but has improved after a poor third quarter.

GBP Under Pressure Ahead of UK Budget and BoE Speaker Insights

The UK published on Friday data showing a net public sector surplus of £15.4bn in January, which fell short of the £20bn estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility in October alongside the Budget.

EUR Reacts Positively to German Election Result, But US Tariffs and ECB Stance Weigh on EUR/USD

The German election results were broadly in line with opinion polls. The CDU/CSU is the leading party with 29%, followed by the far-right AfD at 21% and the SPD at 16%.

USD in Turmoil. Soft Data, Tariff Drama, and Geopolitical Tensions Shape the Dollar's Fate

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without any smaller third party. There’s a lot on the table for markets this week, and we expect plenty of noise in FX.

Dollar Weakens as Yen Surges Amid Policy Shifts

For the first time in a while, most of the major currencies traded in tight ranges last week, with the exception of the yen, which continues to rally amid rising expectations for a faster pace of Bank of Japan policy

Dollar Reverses Weekly Gains as Soft Data and Earnings Challenge US Exceptionalism; Yen Surges on Hawkish Inflation

The dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The yen is the big winner, receiving extra help from hawkish inflation data overnight. We wouldn’t chase the dollar decline much further, though