Something quite unusual has been happening to me over the past few weeks: I am losing my words. I lose my words in the absurdity of the news flow. I simply don't know what to say or how to express myself while staying polite. And every week, since the year began, has kicked off with abnormal news.
EM currencies are generally ending the year on a strong footing – enjoying the benefits of lower core policy rates, a modestly weaker dollar and many offering high carry. There is a lot of focus on the renminbi at the moment and whether China's $1tr trade surplus will drive the renminbi much stronger. For today, the focus is on US jobs and eurozone PMIs
A 25bp cut is practically certain. It's 90% discounted. Not delivering is not really a viable option, given the way the Fed behaves. But, expect a hawkish cut, with a pause to be heavily intimated for the January meeting. It will be interesting to see next Fed liquidity management steps; likely they will need to buy more bills than the MBS roll-off requires
As the online trading landscape continues to evolve, investors are seeking platforms that combine security, innovation, and global accessibility. VELADUR has emerged as a modern multi-asset broker and investment firm delivering speed, transparency, and precision to traders and investors worldwide.
Global supply chain problems and geopolitical concerns may have triggered debate among businesses about reshoring production closer to home, but the numbers tell us a different story. Reported euro area reshorings have steadily declined after being surpassed by offshorings in 2019, suggesting global supply chains remain deeply integrated
The UK government's budget announcement will need to show fiscal discipline to satisfy gilt investors, and while our baseline sees enough credibility to nudge the risk premium in gilt yields lower, we are well aware of significant upside risks too. Foreign gilt investors are relatively important and could even gain in importance in the future
Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile
Buoyant economic growth and signs of recovering investment are paired with slowing wage dynamics, easing upside risks to the current disinflation trend. With CPI inflation approaching the National Bank of Poland's target, the central bank may continue with policy easing. We expect another 25bp rate cut in December