Markets higher as we bounced from the aggressive levels that we marked Monday’s open. Overnight Japan nearly +6% (valuations had approached covid lows) and China higher led by support from a swath of corporate buybacks announced + what would appear to be national team support.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped 1.3pt to 49pts, returning to the contractionary territory after two months above the neutral level of 50. The survey highlighted a rapid decline in demand, with the new orders index falling 3.4pt to only 45.2, the lowest level in almost two years and almost 10pts below the level only two months ago.
Markets are pricing in risks of tariffs with diverging movements across regions and asset classes.
Tariffs risks saw US and Asian equities retreat while European equities outperformed.
However, most G10 currencies outperformed the USD. Commodity- linked currencies like the CAD, AUD and NOK performed best.
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At 0.76 (vs 0.25 last week) our Risk Index has jumped decisively back into risk-averse territory. The Index bounced off its 100-day moving average suggesting a sustained reduction in investor risk appetite.
Ahead of the tariff announcements markets are trading cautiously. Asian stock markets are marginally higher whilst European futures are indicating a marginally softer opening. UST yields are up but have mainly been going sideways during Asian hours and the Eurex complex is essentially unchanged from last night.
The UK CPI was weaker than expected in February at 2.8%yr compared to 3.0%yr in January. Core inflation edged down from 3.7%yr to 3.5%yr, but services inflation held up at 5.0%yr. However, decrease in both was mainly driven by weaker core goods inflation, while services inflation, which the BoE officials follow closely, was unchanged at 5%yr.
Financial markets reacted negatively to President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobile imports, effective from 2 April. US and European equities sold off.
St Louis Fed President Musalem warned that inflationary impact from tariffs might be longer- lasting, prompting Fed to keep interest rates higher.
Treasury and Australian yields were higher, but Gilt yields in the UK fell as the UK government confirmed plans for public spending cuts.
The announcement by US President, Donald Trump, of 25% tariffs on all car and car part imports into the US weighed on sentiment in Asia. Trump also threatened more tariffs on the EU and Canada if they work against the US. Sentiment received some support from Trump continuing to say he will be lenient on reciprocal tariffs.
Quiet start to Tuesday with G10 FX trading in tight ranges against the USD, US equity futures flat while USTs are weaker, led by the back-end. Reports suggest that India could cut its tariffs on US imports to avoid April 2 measures, following Trump's headlines on Monday on a potentially softened and/or targeted approach.
The disruptive agenda of the US administration, including the greater initial emphasis on tariffs and anti-immigration measures rather than pro-growth tax measures and significant uncertainty around US relations with allies & adversaries alike has undermined the US exceptionalism thesis.
The Fed left its dot plot unchanged and revised down its growth forecasts while revising up its inflation forecasts. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he still saw room for rate cuts given that the effect of tariffs on inflation will be transitory. He also said the probability of recession was not high.
Market sentiment was rather positive ahead of the FOMC statement, with European equities rising and € credit spreads tightening. In the wake of the monetary policy decision, equities rose and bond yields eased further after Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump's trade war.
The pound has outperformed alongside other European currencies this month benefitting from the significant improvement in investor sentiment towards the region. It has helped to lift cable back up above the 1.3000-level for the first time since last year’s US election.
• We expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, keeping the fed funds range at 4.25%-4.50%.
• The FOMC’s economic projections should begin to reflect prospects for higher, tariff-fueled inflation and softer US economic growth.
• We see policy remaining on hold through year end and rate cuts restarting in Q1 2026.
The Bank of Canada cut this week, facing potential economic headwinds from trade policy uncertainty. While growth has improved over the last two quarters, the BoC noted that it expected the trade conflict with the US to weigh on economic activity, while also increasing prices and inflation.
Despite a volatile fortnight in global FX markets, USD/Asia has stood out for its relatively stability with most pairs moving within a 0-1.5% range.
According to Nikkei' s exclusive report, the GPIF is expected to maintain its current asset weightings in its basic portfolio from FY2025, with each of the four asset classes retaining their 25% allocation. The article did not specify any changes to the allowable deviation ranges from these target weights.
US inflation print failed to provide a sustained improvement in investor sentiment in Asia. Investors potentially view the inflation data as not being weak enough to immediately change the outlook for the Fed. US President Donald Trump’s threats of retaliatory tariffs against the EU’s counter tariffs to the US steel and aluminium tariffs are also weighing on sentiment.
Further escalation yesterday in the trade war between the United States and Canada. In response to the announcement of a Canadian surcharge on electricity exported to the United States, Donald Trump retaliated by raising tariffs on aluminium and steel by a further 25% to 50%, although he later retracted this decision.
President Trump said that he would add an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum - raising those tariffs to 50% - if Canada does not remove the 25% tariff it placed on electricity from three US states. Ontario's Premier Ford said that he agreed to suspend the 25% electricity surcharge.
Diplomatic efforts have intensified to stop the fighting between both Russia and Ukraine as well as Israel and Hamas. But a durable resolution to both conflicts will not be easy to achieve. The public disagreement in the White House between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart underlined the challenges.
We do not expect large, broad, and sustained US tariffs, but repeated threats of higher tariffs on key trading partners and a lack of policy visibility could weigh on business investment and hiring even if they are never imposed. More volatile markets require an increased focus on portfolio diversification and hedging approaches.
We have just returned from marketing in the UK over the past week (March 3-7th), which overlapped with announcement of Germany’s unprecedented fiscal package and several tariff related announcements.
Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.
American exceptionalism, the main market theme since Trump's election in November, is clearly in a bad way, stoking the idea that American soft power is on the wane. Trump is certainly not solely to blame for this gradual deterioration. Rather, it is the promise of a rebound that seems to be vanishing.
The US dollar is little changed at the start of this week as it continues to trade at weaker levels following last week’s sharp sell-off. The dollar index has fallen back below the 104.00-level giving back all of its gains since the US election victory for President Trump.
Target warned that uncertainty around tariffs would weigh on the retailer's profit in the first quarter and doubled down on sourcing more of its products from countries including Guatemala.
Business executives have been in a state of limbo over Donald Trump's fluctuating plans to impose major tariffs since he took office in January.
Stocks finished lower amid escalating trade war concerns. Longer-dated Treasury yields rose, reversing earlier declines, after German debt brake deal. The dollar slipped, while safe-haven gold gained. Oil prices hit 6-month low on OPEC+ output increase announcement and pause in Ukraine aid.
Markets were spent most of the overnight session reacting to the implementation of tariffs by the US. However, news of a possible reversal late in the session saw reversals.
The DXY fell as implications of tariffs on the US economy are considered. The euro outperformed rising to a multi-month high following the announcement of a defence fund in Germany.
An increase in risk sentiment saw bond yields jump while equities finished lower.
Concerns over the US growth outlook were amplified by Friday’s weak consumer spending data. Nevertheless, a recovery in tech stocks led US equity prices higher. Government bond yields were lower, as market pricing for the fed funds rate switched to price in more interest rates cuts this year.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended sharply lower, weighed down by a slump in chipmaker Nvidia after its quarterly report failed to rekindle Wall Street's AI rally, while investors focused on data pointing to a cooling U.S. economy.
While simmering trade tensions have been a key driver of FX markets this year, optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and stronger fiscal support, especially from defense spending, have also raised the prospects of a better outcome for European growth.
Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
A drop in consumer sentiment brought fresh concerns about the US economic growth. Most major equity indices sold off and government bonds rallied, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping 11bp to 4.29%. Market digested news that Ukraine is going to sign a minerals deal with the US, and a confirmation from the US president that US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go up next week.
The Australian dollar has declined by 0.37% on Wednesday and is trading at 0.6320 in the European session. AUD/USD is down for a fourth consecutive trading day and has lost 1.2% during that time.
The Commodities Feed: European gas sell-off continues. Oil prices are largely under pressure amid demand concerns, while the European gas market continues to sell off aggressively.
Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without any smaller third party. There’s a lot on the table for markets this week, and we expect plenty of noise in FX.
Unlike previous US trade memoranda, the proposed action to tackle China’s dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding is different. It could lift port call fees or cause inefficiencies in supply lines, affecting US importers, exporters, and consumers.
Cold weather and the Los Angeles fires certainly played a role in the poor start to the year for consumer spending and manufacturing, but it may be that confusion over tariff timing is also having an impact.
