The announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan comes against a backdrop of worsening economic data which has been the key factor behind the change in financial market reaction to tariff news from US dollar supportive to dollar negative.
The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts.
Japan: the weak JPY has turned from a problem to a nest egg . The level of JPY weakness has changed from a ‘problem’ to a ‘nest egg’ as the Trump administration’s tariff rate hikes require a buffer. With the buffer of a weaker JPY, the auto industry may be able to continue domestic production without having to raise prices significantly in the US in response to higher tariff rates.
There have been reports on social media that Australian PM, Anthony Albanese, will call an election Friday morning placing the polling date probably on 3 May. Other possible polling dates are 10 May and the last possible date 17 May, but the incumbent Australian Labor Party (ALP) likely wants as short a campaign period as possible having recently overtaken the opposition Liberal-National party coalition (LNP) in the polls and having momentum in its favour.
The Euro area composite flash PMI improved to 50.4 in March (vs. 50.2 in February), a touch below consensus and close to our own expectations. The improvement was led by the manufacturing output index, which increased by 1.8pt to 50.7, the highest level in more than three years, while the services activity index edged down slightly to 50.4.
As a new fiscal discipline, we need a new fiscal target that can take into account macroeconomic conditions, guiding net domestic fund demand to be around -5%. The previous fiscal target of achieving a primary balance surplus was flawed because it aimed to achieve a surplus regardless of macroeconomic conditions, making it impossible to sustainably expand the size of the economy.
Until the corporate savings rate attains a normal negative level and structural deflationary pressures are eliminated, the policy mix of monetary and fiscal policies should maintain the expanding power of the Japanese economy. The increased predictability of firms’ sustained nominal GDP expansion would cause firms to shift their management strategies from cost cutting to investment.
The pound has outperformed alongside other European currencies this month benefitting from the significant improvement in investor sentiment towards the region. It has helped to lift cable back up above the 1.3000-level for the first time since last year’s US election.
Despite a volatile fortnight in global FX markets, USD/Asia has stood out for its relatively stability with most pairs moving within a 0-1.5% range.
• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday
• Data and events: US retail sales
• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement
According to Nikkei' s exclusive report, the GPIF is expected to maintain its current asset weightings in its basic portfolio from FY2025, with each of the four asset classes retaining their 25% allocation. The article did not specify any changes to the allowable deviation ranges from these target weights.
Europe’s defence spending is set to increase significantly in the next few years. If properly channelled towards technological development, this could boost productivity without decreasing social spending.
The economic prosperity of recent decades is under pressure from geopolitical and technological paradigm changes. The golden years of globalization are over, and increasingly rough winds in global trade are exposing Germany's structural weaknesses.
Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced plans for a major increase in defense and infrastructure spending. If passed by the German parliament, the plans would mark a significant fiscal shift that has the potential to boost growth and support Eurozone assets.
Positive growth impulse in Europe counters tariff hit to Asia The pick-up in risk aversion at the start of this week amongst market participants has triggered a correction lower for emerging market currencies. The CLP (-1.7% vs. USD), COP (-1.2%), BRL (-1.1%), IDR (-0.9%) and THB (-0.7%) have weakened the most since the end of last week while the Central European currencies of the CZK (+0.3% vs. USD) and HUF (+0.1%) have continued to outperform.
The sharp move higher in yields outside of US has been an important driver of US dollar weakness at the start of this year. The 10-year JGB yield hit a fresh year to date high overnight of 1.58% and has now risen by around 40 basis points year to date.
Mr. Merz’s whatever-it-takes move lifts Germany’s growth outlook, shows strong determination for the European cause and sends a strong signal to the US and Russia.
Italy’s primary balance for 2024 proved to be better than expected, mitigating the increase in the public-debt ratio.
While simmering trade tensions have been a key driver of FX markets this year, optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and stronger fiscal support, especially from defense spending, have also raised the prospects of a better outcome for European growth.
