Oil stages spectacular reversal higher A disappointing outcome from the OPEC+ meeting (for consumer nations), saw oil’s selloff in Asia yesterday completely reversed plus interest. Markets were disappointed when OPEC+ only agreed to hike production to 650,000 bpd for the next two months, instead of more structural increases from OPEC to cover the Russian shortfall. Things got worse for oil bears later in the season when the US Crude Inventory data posted a surprise 5.0 million barrel drawdown. Brent crude fell as low as USD 112.50 a barrel intraday, before staging a spectacular reversal higher which saw it close 1.93% higher at USD 118.05 a barrel. WTI fell to near USD 111.00 a barrel intraday, before it reversed sharply higher, finishing 2.40% higher at USD 117.55 a barrel. The US Crude Inventory number impacts WTI more and causing the Brent premium over WTI to narrow sharply. In Asia, the swathe of holidays has torpedoed volumes and liquidity. Brent crude and WTI have seen some short-term long-covering, pushing them slightly lower to USD 117.45 and USD 116.60 a barrel respectively. Markets have passed judgment on the OPEC+ moves unequivocally and clearly believe they will have no meaningful impact on the global supply/demand imbalance. The ferocity of the rally overnight leaves little doubt that the upside is the path of least resistance. Brent crude has resistance at USD 118.40, USD 120.00, and USD 124.00, with support distance at USD 112.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 117.70 and then USD 120.00, with now distant support at USD 111.25 a barrel. Gold rises sharply on falling US dollar It is a measure of how powerful the risk-on rally was overnight, and how desperate markets are to price in less Fed tightening, that gold leapt 1.20% higher to USD 1868.50 an ounce as the US dollar was crushed. Having probed USD 1874.00 in early Asian trading, it has retreated back to its starting point at USD 1868.50 as the morning progressed, volumes impacted by holidays in Greater China. The chart picture shows gold is now eroding resistance at USD 1870.00, with the 100-DMA at USD 1886.00 as its next target, followed by USD 1900.00. There, I suspect, it will encounter heavy option-related selling initially. Support is at USD 1844.00, USD 1830.00, and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. I do not discount a disorderly retreat if the latter fails. A weaker than expected US Non-Farm Payrolls number tonight should keep the less-Fed-tightening, risk-seeking party going. In that case, a test of USD 1900.00 is out of the question, followed by a gap higher if it breaks. However, gold bugs will know how quickly joy can turn to disappointment with gold, and a firm data print could well see the overnight gains unwound with interest. Be careful out there. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. https://www.marketpulse.com/20220603/799781/

Nonfarm Payrolls in US is forecast to increase by 325,000 in May. Gold is likely to react more significantly to a disappointing jobs report than an upbeat one. Gold's movement has no apparent connection with NFP deviation four hours after the release. Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article, we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAU/USD pair's reaction to the previous 22 NFP prints*. We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the May jobs report on Friday, June 3. Expectations are for a 325,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 428,000 increase in April. *We omitted the NFP data for March 2021, which was published on the first Friday of April, due to lack of volatility amid Easter Friday. Methodology We plotted gold price’s reaction to the NFP release at 15 minutes, one hour and four hours intervals after the release. Then we compared the gold price reaction to the deviation between the actual NFP release result and the expected result. We used the FXStreet Economic Calendar for data on deviation as it assigns a deviation point to each macroeconomic data release to show how big the divergence was between the actual print and the market consensus. For instance, the August (2021) NFP data missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin and the deviation was -1.49. On the other hand, February’s (2021) NFP print of 536,000 against the market expectation of 182,000 was a positive surprise with the deviation posting 1.76 for that particular release. A better-than-expected NFP print is seen as a USD-positive development and vice versa. Finally, we calculated the correlation coefficient (r) to figure out at which time frame gold had the strongest correlation with an NFP surprise. When r approaches -1, it suggests there is a significant negative correlation, while a significant positive correlation is identified when r moves toward 1. Since gold is defined as XAU/USD, an upbeat NFP reading should cause it to edge lower and point to a negative correlation. Results There were 12 negative and 10 positive NFP surprises in the previous 22 releases, excluding data for March 2021. On average, the deviation was -0.86 on disappointing prints and 0.6 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $3.97 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold declined by $1.44 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a disappointing print. However, the correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above don’t even come close to being significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the releases with the r standing at -0.48. One hour after the release, the correlation weakens with the r rising to -0.31 and there is virtually no correlation to speak of four hours after the release with the r approaching 0. Several factors could be coming into play to weaken gold’s correlation with NFP surprises. A few hours after the NFP release on Friday, investors could look to book their profits toward the London fix, causing gold to reverse its direction after the initial reaction. Additionally, FOMC policymakers made it clear that they will remain focused on taming inflation and that they are not concerned about the labour market, possibly causing the market reaction to the headline NFP to remain short-lived.

Or a failed recovery? Gold fell heavily between the middle of April and May but then started to recover as interest rate expectations were pared back. How sustainable is the recovery? Gold - Gathering momentum? - MarketPulseMarketPulse It ran into trouble quite quickly around $1,870, at which point it struggled to gather any upward momentum. But after falling back towards $1,830 today, that may have changed. A rotation off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – mid-May lows to late-May highs – which coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band may signal a resumption of the recovery that sees it test last week’s highs. If so, then perhaps gold could enjoy more of a recovery and a run at $1,900. But that may depend on how the broader markets behave and whether yields and the dollar avoid rising much further. A failure at $1,850 or $1,870 could spell trouble for the yellow metal, especially if accompanied by higher interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Gold Price traded with upside on Monday as the US dollar continued to fade despite holiday-thinned trading conditions. XAUUSD was last changing hands near $1,860 and eyeing recent highs having found decent support at its 21 and 200 DMAs. Should market participants continue to pare Fed tightening bets, gold could reclaim $1,900, even if risk appetite also rebounds. Gold Price (XAU/USD) is trading with an upside bias in quiet, US holiday-thinned trade and eyeing a test of last week’s highs around $1,870 per troy ounce. At current levels around $1,860, XAUUSD is about 0.4% higher, having found support earlier in the session at the 21-Day Moving Average (at $1,849.25) and amid continued technical buying after spot prices found solid support at the 200 DMA (at $1,840) last week. US Economic Data Gold’s advances on Monday come despite a positive tone to global macro trade and are being driven by a continued weakening to fresh monthly lows in the US dollar. In wake of US Consumer Price Inflation data released earlier in the month and Core PCE inflation data released last week, market participants have become less worried about inflation in the US and, as a result, Fed tightening bets have seen a modest pullback (i.e. for H2 2022 and 2023). Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM US Bonds And US Dollar (USD) Helps XAUUSD US bond markets are closed on Monday, but price action in gold and USD markets suggests that yields will probably open the week lower, a continuation of the weakening trend that has, in tandem with the recent weakening of the US dollar, boosted XAUUSD by over 4.0% from sub-$1,790 mid-month lows. US data will be in focus this week with various tier one releases including the May ISM Manufacturing PMI survey and official May labour market report all out later in the week. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Inflation Analysts argued that should the trends of easing US inflation fears, easing Fed tightening bets and subsequently, more downside in US yields and the buck continue, that could be a bullish medium-term driver for gold, even if it also boosts risk appetite (i.e. US equities). With XAUUSD having found such strong support at its 21 and 200 DMAs, the outlook for further upside towards the 50 DMA near $1,900 looks good. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Gold Price is holding above its 200-DMA in the $1,850 area and is back to nearly flat on the week. Traders are weighing the tailwinds of a softer USD and US yields versus strong US equities, as key Friday inflation data looms. How Fed And USD May Affect Gold? Gold Price (XAU/USD) is for now holding just above its 200-Day Moving Average at $1,839 and trading near the $1,850 level, though still with a slight downside bias on the day, despite Thursday’s worse-than-expected US GDP figures and Wednesday’s not as hawkish as feared Fed minutes release. Indeed, in wake of the weak data and modest paring back of hawkish Fed bets, the US dollar is a tad weaker and US yields are nudging lower, a combination that would normally be a tailwind for gold. Stronger Stocks - E.G. S&P 500 But US equities are rallying, with the S&P 500 last trading up around 1.4% on the day and eyeing a test of its 21-Day Moving Average for the first time since mid-April. On the week, the index is trading with gains of more than 3.0% and this appears to be weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. Traders are attributing stock market gains to weak GDP data reducing the need for aggressive Fed tightening and to strong earnings from a few US companies, including retail giant Macy’s. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Either way, the better tone to risk appetite is for now keeping XAU/USD on the back foot. Having been as high as the $1,870 level earlier in the week, spot gold’s gains on the week have been eroded back to only about 0.2% from around 1.2%. But the recent pullback towards the 200-DMA might prove a good opportunity for the gold bulls to add to long positions if they think that hawkish Fed bets will continue to be pared in the weeks ahead and, as a result, the buck and US yields continue softening. If it contributes to the strengthening narrative that US inflation has peaked, Friday’s US April Core PCE report could lead to a further reduction of Fed tightening bets and gold could well end the week back at highs in the $1,870 area. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading on correction towards $1,860 in the Asian session after reaching the high of $1868 yesterday as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and US Durable Goods data later today. The yellow metal jumped strongly for the past week after reaching the low of around $1,786 printed on May 16. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News The strength in gold prices is due to the DXY's steep fall below 102.00 after making a record 19-year high of 105.00 on May 13. Following this, further gains in gold cannot be ruled out. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Source: Online Trading Platform | Currencies, Commodities, Stocks, Cryptos | ICM.com

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/sjmsHFks-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last week’s KOG Report we said we were overdue a retracement from the decline we had witnessed and would be looking for a short-term bottom for the price to then begin some form of retracement. We suggested to look at the 1780-90 price region and if price rejected that region, then we would be looking for the price to target the 1810, 1820 and above that 1835 price points. We suggested we would be looking for the price to remain below the 1850 price point and if it did, we would be looking to short the market back down. During the week we updated this with the intraday zones and suggested the 1835 price point would be a good target for the shorts and then to look for the long again into the 1850 region for the retest. As you can see the market moved as anticipated and it gave traders the opportunity to long, short and then long again using the zones and levels provided. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’ll start by saying we always trade caution leading up to the end of the month and with this being the last trading week of the month we’re going to be picking and choosing our trades wisely. May is usually a negative month for Gold so what we want to see is if this has found the bottom here for now and are we going to be testing the higher price regions over the coming months. We have shared the weekly and monthly charts on Gold showing what we’re seeing highlighting the key areas for the structure to remain intact for lower pricing, so we’re not convinced this is going to new all-time highs at the moment. We can see the higher level of around 1910-20 which is where liquidity is sitting tight, so there is a possibility we will see this price point as some point in the coming months. We will be aiming for this level only on the break and close of the 1850 level. Until then, as we suggested on the weekly KOG Report we have a low of around 1780 which needs to break for this to go lower. Now traders will be asking is it a buy or a sell! We’ll say we have two main targets in mind for the coming week, the 1865 level and the 1780 level. We have the key zone of 1830-35 stopping us to the downside and we have the psychological level of 1850 blocking us to the upside. This gives us the range we could be playing in if this wants to accumulate here on the daily timeframe. So as always, we’ll trade this with 2 scenarios in mind for the week. Scenario 1: Price opens and we get a negative signal in the early sessions. We will be looking for the support region of 1832 and below that 1828. As long as these levels hold, we feel this will represent an opportunity to long the market up towards 1850, 1855 and above the 1865. 1865 is our target on the long side for this week and that’s where we want to see if there is a break through and close or if the price is rejected at that level. Scenario 2: Price opens with a positive signal; we will be looking for a break of 1850 and close. If 1850 holds as support, we see this as a short term trade to the upside to target that 1865 price region and look there for a rejection in price. If price is rejected there, we feel this is an opportunity to take the short trade back down for the target area of 1835 and if we close the daily below the 1850 level the levels of 1820, 1810 and below that 1790. In summary. Trade the range, trade the levels, breaks and closes, look for sniper entries from support and resistance levels and follow the targets. We will be trading this level to level, if we get the right entry we’ll take partials at a good levels and move the stops to entry on the winners to protect them. We’re not here to get rich quick, when the market is giving take from it, but when it starts taking make sure to give as little as possible. We’ll share the weekly and monthly chart updates as well so we can see what the price is doing on a bigger scale allowing us to stay the right side of it. This week we have FOMC on Wednesday so potential for this to just range in a tight zone creating choppy and whipsawing price action. Please tread carefully, don’t commit too heavily on your trades and make sure you use a strict and responsible stop loss! Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.