In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we were expecting some bearish movement on Gold as there was a lot of supply below that we thought would need a visit. We did say due to the news we would need to keep the bullish momentum in mind and if the price and if price found support around the 1885 level we would be looking to long the market into the 1914 and above that 1930-35 levels. We expected a reaction at the 1935 level where we wanted to test the short, however, based on the market structure and the daily KOG updates we decided to sit out with shorting the market to let the bullish move play out. We then identified our target area on the NFP report where the first target has been hit, but we still have a target slightly higher that we would like to see achieved.
So what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’re going to keep it short this week and stick with the NFP chart we shared on Friday. What we’re looking during the course of this week is for our 1980-85 target that we mentioned a few weeks ago to be completed at some point and then for the price to attempt some form of bearish retracement into the first target of 1950, 1935 and below that 1920 initially. A break of 1920 and its likely we will see our lower target of 1885 completed. All charts are extremely bullish with the 3 month chart showing a trend that can complete around the 2085 level which we have to keep in mind. There is a lot of news still driving the market aggressively into these levels which is making if difficult for position traders to hold long term unless they’re using huge stop losses. So we’re going to play the defence again this week and take it level to level with the bias for this week being the short trade!
So we’ll trade this with two scenarios:
The price comes down during the early sessions and finds support around the 1960-55 level, we feel this price point would represent a good opportunity to take the long trade into that 1980-85 level and potentially above! At that 1980-85 level we would like to see a reaction on price and based on strong resistance we may test that short we are looking for.
Price opens as it did last week with bullish volume from the get go. We will look for resistance at the 1980-85 level or there abouts and we feel that price point would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1960, 1950 and below that 1930 levels.
If we get this right again this week there are a lot of pips to be captured but your lots sizes are really important. Allocate a lot size that allows you to remain flexible with the choppy price action and the volatile swings that the markets are creating. Always have a risk strategy in place and you will make money in these markets.
We’ll update you during the week as we usually do. As always, trade safe.