Daily EdgeIn the last 24h, since I last sat down to write my take-away in the marketplace, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap opened up against the G8 FX peers was minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. In terms of the fundamental drivers playing a role in the last movements seen, this is what the script looked like. Early in Asia, the New Zealand Dollar was pressured lower in a move that dragged on through the London session. This occurred despite the release of the half-yearly update from the NZ Treasury saw GDP forecasts boosted and that for the peak unemployment rate lowered.As Europe came online, we learned some encouraging news out of Europe, with the positive French and German PMI prints for December. The Euro and the Swiss Franc, which often move in lockstep, reaped the most benefits as algo-buying activity followed suit in the immediate aftermath. However, we failed to see follow-through demand.The bullish moves in the EUR or the CHF proved legless, and certainly didn’t dispute the dominance of the Pound since early this week as hopes of a trade deal have definitively been brought back to be the forefront as the default narrative the market is buying into. Negotiations between the EU and the UK will likely stretch into the weekend again.Lastly, the one even we were all waiting for, even if the chances to see sustained volatility were pretty slim, came in the form of the FOMC. After all said and done, it proved to be a rather muffled affair. The lack of any new action from the FOMC was well reflected in how the market reacted. After an initial knee-jerk response in the US dollar, vol ended up being short-lived and legless. Fed’s Chairman Powell reiterated for the zillionth time that the Central Bank will remain in hyper-dovish mode with no rush whatsoever to raise rates.When it comes to trading opportunities, there was a phenomenal TT structure to play long CHF/JPY in Europe that ended up being a scratch trade. As I shift gears to the merits of a few selected currency pairs that currently offer for the best contextual settings to find opportunities, the video below invites you into my thoughts of the market for today.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.Holding trades overnight? Check out Global Prime swap rates.

In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article - How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II - is an excellent review item for today's Part II conclusion to our current article. Custom Metals Index Channels & TrendsOur Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals.  If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” - where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so.  This half-cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse.Recently, the upside price trend on this Custom Metals index page suggests a price channel has setup and may continue.  The recent pullback in price has just recently touched the lower price channel and started to stall near these lows.  If precious metals prices resume any upward price trends after reaching these lows, the technical pattern will stay valid and we believe Gold will attempt to rally above $2350 to $2500 in this next leg higher.  Longer-term, we feel it us just a matter of time before precious metals begin another breakout rally.Longer-term Cycle Phases – Why They Are ImportantLastly, we want to leave you with the following longer-term market cycle chart showing the US Dollar, the SPX500 and GOLD.  We know this chart is a bit complicated and cluttered, but we'll try to highlight the key elements for you to understand.  First, look for the rallies and declines in the US Dollar Index in alignment with the “Appreciation” and “Depreciation” phases.  Remember, the left and right edges of this chart are in a “Depreciation” phase thus, the dramatic selloff in the US Dollar index on the left edge of this chart took place near the beginning of a Depreciation Phase.  The rally in the US Dollar Index from 1992 to 2000 took place in an Appreciation Phase.  Currently, we believe we have ended an Appreciation Phase and started a new Depreciation phase in the markets.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Now, take a look at the SPX500 line on this chart.  Notice how bigger rallies take place in Appreciation phases and sideways trending (with massive volatility) take place in Depreciation phases?  The last Appreciation Phase started in 2010~11 (or so) and ended in 2018~19 (or so).  If our research is correct, this new Depreciation phase will last until 2027~28 (or so) and may prompt a very big volatility cycle in the US Dollar and the US/Global stock markets.Now, pay attention to how Gold setup a major bottom in late 2015 (mid-cycle phase).  Could this be an indication that precious metals reacted to the peak in the US Dollar index rally phase early 2015 and subsequent peak in the US Dollar in December 2016 (remember, that date was just after a major US election)?  Could the early phase rally in precious metals be warning us that another 600%+  rally in precious metals (just like what happened from 2000 to 2011) take place from the 2015 Gold lows near $1080?  If so, does this mean the ultimate upside price target for Gold is some where above $6,800?If our research is correct, the longer term rotations in the global markets aligned with these major market phases will mean traders will have to learn to identify and trade the best performing assets at all times.  The shifts in how assets and sectors are valued will continue to roll in and out of favor as capital moves from one sector to another.  Precious metals and the US Dollar are just one component of the broader markets – there are hundreds of sector ETFs  and thousands of individual stock symbols to select from.  Skilled traders need to know when sectors perform the best and which asset classes/symbols are poised for the best returns – that is the only way to really try to beat the markets over the next 9+ years.Precious metals should continue to find support and attempt to rally higher if our longer-term research is accurate, but skilled technical traders know we can't simply rely on precious metals over the next 8+ years – we need more diversity and we need to protect our trading capital from losses.  The only way to do that is to learn how to spot the best performing assets and to stay ahead of emerging trends.  Get ready, the next few years are certainly going to be interesting and full of opportunities.We publish this free research to help you stay ahead of broad market trends and to illustrate how we apply our technical analysis skills in helping you find and trade the best performing assets. We are proud of the research we deliver to you fro FREE, but if you want to profit from our knowledge then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about our BAN trading and review an example of my daily pre-market reports. Please take a minute to visit our web site to see how we can help you survive and prosper from these big future trends.Happy Trading!

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday (Dec. 15) as optimism grew that Congress could pass another economic stimulus package before year’s end.News RecapThe Dow Jones gained 337.76 points, or 1.1%, and closed at 30,199.31. The S&P 500 also gained 1.3% and snapped a four-day losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and reached a new record closing high of 12,595.06. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 2.40%.In the strongest indication yet that we may be coming closer to a stimulus agreement, the top four congressional leaders-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - all were set to meet after market close on Tuesday (Dec. 15).Democrats and Republicans still remain deeply divided on certain matters, but a two-part bipartisan stimulus plan proposed on Tuesday (Dec. 15) has a chance of passing.The stimulus package would provide around $908 billion in total aid. The first part would be a $748 billion stimulus package that includes an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more PPP loans. This segment would also include money for vaccine distribution, education, and rental assistance. The second segment would be a $160 billion aid package and cover the more partisan issues of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.The first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday (Dec. 14) with further distributions occurring Tuesday (Dec. 15).FDA staff announced that they endorsed emergency usage of Moderna’s vaccine. The FDA’s vaccine advisory panel will meet Thursday (Dec. 16) to decide whether to recommend clearance for emergency use. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer doses already in distribution.Apple led the Dow higher, jumping 5% after Nikkei reported that the company will increase iPhone production by about 30% in the first half of 2021.All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on Tuesday (Dec. 15) and were led by energy and utilities.We are approaching the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic yet. 300,000 people across the country have now lost their lives to the disease. However, the worst may not be over yet. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.The short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment due to two major catalysts - the lack of stimulus and an out-of-control virus.According to Art Hogan , chief market strategist at National Securities:“There’s been a tug of war between the vaccine news and the virus news. The only tiebreaker that’s kept the averages on their way higher seems to be the potential for getting stimulus out of gridlock...It certainly feels like one of the proposals that’s on the table ... can go through.”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before a mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”On the other hand, the mid-term and long-term optimism is very real. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain, and focus on the longer-term gains.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, like Monday (Dec. 14), the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, like Tuesday (Dec. 15), there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. On other days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty.However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly a challenge to predict the future with certainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingEnergy (XLE)Energy is a sector largely dependent on sentiment, with several question marks.On one hand, if you are bullish, all of this vaccine news bodes well for a full economic reopening by the second half of 2021. That means travel, and therefore fuel demand, could surge back to pre-pandemic levels. WTI crude futures on Tuesday (Dec. 15) extended gains to trade around 1% higher at $47.5 a barrel due to cautious optimism on further US stimulus in addition to the vaccine(s).On the other hand, there are very real short-term concerns. There are fresh concerns over global fuel demand as countries, states, and cities across the world tighten coronavirus restrictions. Germany and the Netherlands will enter a new lockdown, while the UK government imposed tighter Covid-19 measures on London. In New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio warned that the city is on the path towards a second full shutdown. Governor Andrew Cuomo already banned all indoor dining. The newly inaugurated Mayor of Baltimore, Brandon Scott, also banned all dining - both indoor and outdoor. OPEC also lowered its projections for global fuel consumption in Q1 2021 by 1 million barrels a day as well. The organization will meet on January 4th to evaluate if they can move on with supply increases. Much anticipated data from the EIA is also due on Wednesday.This is such an unpredictable sector experiencing great volatility. It is almost as if energy is either the S&P 500’s leader or its laggard. There is never anything in between. These are simply risky and major percentage swings on a day-to-day basis.It is a very difficult sector to make a bullish call on. There are still simply too many headwinds to be overly euphoric. While energy is still largely undervalued, and the RSI is no longer overbought, the volume is not stable. Most importantly, nobody truly knows what oil’s long-term prospects are, with the increased adoption of renewable energy and ESG investing.This year we have seen that when energy rallies, it eventually pulls back. Judging from the chart, that inevitable pullback could possibly come again. For the month of December, the ETF is up nearly 8%. But I would be more confident in either calling BUY or HOLD or a pullback - not during such a volatile time.While there is vaccine optimism now that there wasn’t before, conditions are largely the same on the ground with regard to COVID-19 and travel demand. Therefore, my call is to take profits and SELL. DivingCommunication Services (XLC)I really don’t like this sector and I will explain why. Although the Communication Services ETF touched a 52-week high recently, the gains have not been as stable or as robust compared to other sectors. But this is generally par the course for communications stocks. This is a sector that continuously underperforms other sectors both in the short-term and long-term.While traditionally this is a good sector to find value in, right now I just don’t see it. I see downside risk without the same type of upside potential as exists in other sectors that may benefit more from a successful vaccine roll-out and economic reopening.Furthermore, the ETF’s volume is already low, and has been in decline. This screams volatility to me.I just can’t see how you would benefit buying into this sector. It is hard to foresee how this sector will truly benefit from a vaccine and 2021 reopening relative to other sectors. Therefore, I give it a SELL call.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

It’s tempting to ride the silver rollercoaster. After-all, gold’s volatile little brother is just that – volatile. Its wilder price swings make some of the investment public believe they can profit from it more quickly. However, it’s important to remember and take note of the fact that silver (or gold and miners for that matter) should not be judged on its own when making a purchasing decision. It’s a bit more complicated and other factors come into play, such as relative strength.One must track the precious metals’ performance against equities or the USD Index. Asking questions is prudent; how is silver doing compared to gold, and why? The USDX is moving lower but the PMs are not rallying? Hmmm, is there enough strength for them to break out? Silver or gold don’t exist in a vacuum. Instead, their performance has to be judged relative to other factors.The white metal closed yesterday’s (Dec. 15) session right at its declining resistance line. It moved sharply higher today, soaring above both: its declining resistance line and its December high.This is exactly what silver tends to do right before significant declines – it’s exceptionally strong – more than gold and mining stocks. Why would this be the case? Because silver is a relatively thin market, where many institutional investors can’t go as there’s not enough silver for them. The “big players” generally go for gold, and silver is favored by the investment public. The silver manipulation theories are making the demand among the investment public even stronger, and the investment public (as a general group, not any individual person) tends to enter the market close to the tops.The above-mentioned factors – along with the relatively small size of the silver market – make the white metal perform very well (too well) near the local tops. Of course, this doesn’t work each and every time, just like any other trading technique, and one should also look for additional confirmations before making a trade (like weak miners , which tend to react differently than silver).It does imply, however, that it’s best not to take silver’s strength at its face value, and definitely not to view it as bullish unless it’s confirmed by the rest of the precious metals sector. Today’s breakout in silver and lack thereof in gold is not a bullish development, but a bearish one.Moving on to the performance of the mining stocks, let’s take a look at the chart below.The GDX ETF – proxy for precious metals mining stocks – moved higher yesterday, more than nullifying the previous day’s decline. But, overall, was it really strong? Absolutely not. In today’s trading on the London Stock Exchange, the GDX is up only a bit above Tuesday’s intraday highs, and it corrected only a bit more than a half of the December decline.Simply put:Gold is relatively weak compared to what’s happening in the USD IndexSilver is relatively strong to gold and breaking above the previous resistance levels without confirmations from neither gold, nor mining stocksGold and silver mining stocks are weak compared to what’s happening in goldThe above is a perfectly bearish combination on the relative strength front. Combining this with USDX’s proximity to its target area makes the overall implications for the precious metals market very bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the downside target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks.If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Energy stocks and one Financials stock again. In the last five trading days (December 9 – December 15) the broad stock market has been trading within a short-term consolidation following its recent record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,712.39 a week ago on Wednesday. Then it retraced some of the advance before going back up on Monday-Tuesday this week.The S&P 500 index has lost 0.31% between December 9 open and December 15 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 1.32%. Stock picks were relatively much stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.91% and short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 1.73%. So short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): XOM (+0.77%), EOG (+0.62%), PGR (+4.73%), BK (+0.51%), MMM (-2.10%)Short Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): LNT (-0.81%), CNP (-1.64%), ABBV (-4.28%), DHR (-0.16%), APTV (-1.75%)Average long result: +0.91%, average short result: +1.73%Total profit (average): +1.32%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 16 – Tuesday, December 22 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 16) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 22).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Energy, 2 x Financials, 1 x Communication Servicessells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesXOM Exxon Mobil Corp. - EnergyStock broke above its short-term downward trend line, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $40 and resistance level is at $44-47 (short-term target profit level)COP ConocoPhillips – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $42 and resistance level is at $45-50WFC Wells Fargo & Co. – FinancialsPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $29.50 and resistance level is at $30.00Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Energy and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

What we mean with the very first is that only for the reversal pattern of a “V” formation one wants to be the very first one to enter into a trade. This is the rarest occurrence of a turning point and for any other tuning points i.e.: double/triple bottoms, ranges, diamonds, rounding bottoms, divergences to name a few you’re always too early and as such not just a sitting duck for possible stops to be triggered but have additional risk due to capital exposed over time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, No need to be first:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 15th, 2020In the daily chart, we can see our principle in action. Shorting the market on a triple top into the distribution resistance zone (red box) would make you a sitting duck. A closer look shows prices already trading above POC (point of control) of a volume analysis, indicating strength. This is confirmed by a strong trend overall (yellow trend line) and strong price behavior (daily price closes are indicating strength). You do not want to be always first just based on a price level. It requires more in-depth analysis and stacking of odds to enter or exit positions. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Overbought:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 15th, 2020A view from a linear regression perspective (directional lines red, turquoise, green) shows how extended prices are in the weekly time frame. It puts Bitcoin into a sell zone. Bitcoin is trading in stretched standard deviation levels and could easily snap back to its mean (thin red line). Taking partial profits if exposed from lower levels provides insurance for a possible retracement. Our quad exit strategy provides a guideline on taking profits like this.Nevertheless, recent weeks still point towards price behavior that indicates strength like last week’s candlestick hammer formation.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 15th, 2020As always the bigger picture is what matters most. Looking back, Bitcoin has accomplished what most doubted. Its biggest opponents have joined the club and invested now themselves. This left us trading at 2017 highs and congesting there. Clearly representing strength. The monthly chart above shows that with the past “W” formation alone a presence of probabilities is set that makes even the worst scenario (a retracement to 14k) attractive (white dotted line). The highest likelihood is a breakout through all-time highs. This, in turn, allows for a continuation move to higher price levels (turquoise dotted line).Bitcoin - mastering the turning pointFrom the three most dominant aspects of trading (price, volume, and time), time seems to be the most overlooked in the trading approach. Traders are in principle too early in and out of trades. It is essential to at least add an edge like a volume analysis or otherwise high probability strategy if one trades form a price level perspective. Especially to not be caught by professionals who are aware of amateurs trading a support resistance approach only. At Midas Touch, we employ a complex stacking of odds to cut through a turning point in an effective way extracting low-risk entry points at the appropriate time. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

EURUSD Likely To Challenge Previous HighsThe euro currency is once again back on the front foot as price action inches closer to test the previously established two and a half year high at 1.2176.The gains come as the common currency eased back from its declines earlier this week. Currently, the upside momentum is held by the support from the trend line.However, it will now be critical for the euro to break past the previous barrier. Failure to break out from this two and half year high could result in a possible reversal in price action.This would in turn once again shift focus to the downside.The key support level is near 1.1900. Therefore, in the event that the EURUSD fails to break out any higher, we could probably expect a near term correction in price action.GBPUSD Continues To Trade Flat, Above 1.3300The British pound sterling continues to trade flat albeit, price action is firmly supported above the 1.3300 level.Following the gap higher at the start of the week, the GBPUSD has been pushing lower. For the moment, there remains an unfilled gap from Monday’s open.To the upside, price action is trading well below the key upper range of 1.3483. The weakness in the US dollar is currently helping the British pound to push higher.However, it is unlikely to see any major gains coming in the near term.We expect the sideways range to be held until there is some kind of a resolution to the ongoing Brexit talks between the EU and the UK.WTI Crude Oil Advances To A Nine-Month HighOil prices are trading bullish once again following the previous few sessions where price action was rather subdued.As the bullish momentum slowly grips, oil prices are seen advancing to the previously formed nine-month high.A continuation to the upside could possibly see prices testing a new ten-month high shortly. This would mean that prices would near the 48.00 level for the moment.It would also put oil prices just $2 away from the psychological barrier of $50. The current gains to the upside are supported both by the technicals and the fundamentals in the markets.The key support level at 45.00 remains the downside for the moment.However, it is unlikely that we would see a sharp correction coming anytime soon.Gold Prices Back Near 1850 Technical ResistanceThe precious metal is trading over 1% on Tuesday.The gains come amid fresh talks in the US Congress about a new proposed coronavirus stimulus bill. If this bill is passed, this would put an end to the weeks of speculation in the markets.Gold prices have been trading rather flat after rising above the key support level of 1818.80 in early December this year.For the moment, the technical resistance level of 1850 is being tested once again.However, the stochastics oscillator on the four-hour chart is likely to print lower.This could mean that gold prices could once again retreat back and settle within the range of 1850 and 1818.80.

EURUSD Fails To Post New Highs The euro currency’s rebound after the ECB meeting saw prices rising only to highs near 1.2150. Following this, price action retreated, edging closer back to the rising trend line. We expect the trend line support to once again come into the picture. As long as this support holds, the EURUSD might be looking to aim higher. In the event that the common currency loses the trend line support, then we expect price action to fall toward the 1.2050 level, marking the December 9 lows. To the upside, the EURUSD will have to break out above the previous highs of 1.2178 to continue the uptrend. GBPUSD Loses The 1.3300 Support The British pound sterling slipped below the support level of 1.3300 on Friday. This comes as Brexit talks come to a head. For the moment, the lower support near 1.3122 remains the key price point. As long as this support level holds, there is scope for the GBPUSD to push higher. However, prices will need to break out strongly above the 1.3300 level to continue the uptrend. This will then open the GBPUSD to the upper resistance level of 1.3483. To the downside, a close below 1.3122 could open the way for the cable to retest the 1.3000 round number support once again. Oil Prices Pull Back From A Nine-Month High WTI Crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday to rise close to the 48.00 level. However, prices pulled back into Friday’s close. This comes as the 45.00 level is firmly establishing as support. Thus, a pullback could see this support level being tested once again. The Stochastics oscillator on the 4-hour chart remains mixed. There is enough room for prices to breakout higher. Above the 48.00 level, oil prices will be contending with a retest of the 50.00 level. To the downside, below the 45.00 support area, a correction could bring the commodity down to test the 44.00 handle next. Gold Settles Within The 1850 And 1825 Range The precious metal continues to trade flat for the second consecutive session. As a result, price action is trading within a tight band of the 1850 and the 1825 levels in the near term. The Stochastics oscillator remains biased to the downside. This could mean that if gold prices lose the 1817.80 level of support, then we expect the downside to continue. The next key level of support will be near the 1750 level. It would also mean that gold prices will be moving lower beyond the 30th November lows of 1764.22. To the upside, price action will need to firmly close above 1850 and continue to the 1900 level to establish the uptrend.