Wall Street tumbled

Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

Stock markets saw strong declines the day after the Fed decision as investors may have concluded that the Fed will nonetheless fight inflation in a determined manner with the so-called wealth effect at its disposal.


Yesterday's sell-off on Wall Street could have been very impressive, as the indices fell at a rate we haven't seen in two years, mainly due to technology companies. The Dow index lost more than 1,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5 percent. - Both indexes posted their worst one-day declines since 2020. The S&P 500 Index also fell 3.56 percent, its second-worst day this year. Thursday's session erased Wednesday's strong gains after the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology stocks suffered the most: Tesla (-8.3 percent), Apple (-5.6 percent), Amazon (-7.6 percent), AMD (-5.6 percent) and Microsoft (-4.4 percent), where the outlook for earnings momentum may not be the best for the next few quarters.


The sharp decline in stocks and entire indexes may also be part of the fight against inflation through the so-called wealth effect. Americans, more than half of whom may have exposure to the stock market, may consume less as their savings melt down in the stock market. Thus, this can have a deflationary effect by reducing demand pressures, which appears to be an additional mechanism for fighting inflation. Previously, with the wealth effect, central banks may want to drive current consumption, because it is different to spend income when the value of savings rises rapidly and when it falls rapidly, even though current income is not affected.


Returning to the markets, one also can't help but notice that it wasn't just stocks that were cheapening. Bond and cryptocurrency prices also fell. The yield on 10-year US bonds beat the 3 percent level, and BTC fell below $36,000 at one point. It seems that once again capital was returning to the USD, as its index approached the level of 104 points, the highest since 2002. Nervousness in the markets, therefore, seems to persist, and this will be compounded by today's publication of data from the US labor market at 14:30. It seems that the times when bad data was good for the markets, as they waited for the Fed to help, are over. Now, bad data can be perceived negatively, and good data positively. The consensus is for a reading of 385k. What will be the NFP? That is what we will find out in a few hours and could be the event of the day.


Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service)

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Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

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