US Yields Surge, Equities Drop, and Oil Rebounds: A Market Recap

Taming Inflation: March Rate Cut Unlikely Despite Rough 5-Year Auction

US yields spike, equities fall, oil rebounds

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

Bad. Yesterday's 30-year treasury auction in the US was bad. And this time, the bad auction got the anticipated reaction. The US Treasuries saw a sharp selloff - especially in the 20 and 30-year papers. The US 30-year yield jumped 22bp, the 20-year yield jumped more than 20bp, while the 10-year yield jumped 18bp to above 4.60%.  

Then, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an IMF event was hawkish. Powell repeated that the FOMC will move 'carefully' and that the Fed won't hesitate to raise the interest rates again, if needed. The US 2-year yield is back above the 5% level.  

Of course, the sudden jump in US yields hit appetite in US stocks yesterday. The S&P500 fell 0.80%, and Nasdaq fell 0.82%. The US bond auction brought along a lot of volatility, questions, and uncertainty. 

At 5%, the US 2-year yield is still 50bp below the upper limit of the Fed funds target range. Therefore, if the Fed could convince investors that the rates will stay high for long, this part of the curve has potential to shift higher. On the longer end, we could reasonably expect the US 10-year yield to remain below the 5% mark – and even ease gently if economic growth slows and the job market loosens. A wider inversion between the US 2-10-year yield should boost the odds a higher of US recession. But hey, we are used to the inverted yield curve, and we believe that it won't necessarily bring along recession. Goldman sees only a 15% chance of US recession next year. 

Taming Inflation: March Rate Cut Unlikely Despite Rough 5-Year Auction

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Ipek Ozkardeskaya provides market analysis on FX, leading market indices, individual stocks, oil, commodities, bonds and interest rates.
She has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked in HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist in Swissquote Bank. She worked as Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
She is passionate about the interaction between the economy and financial markets. She has been observing and analyzing a wide variety of relationships between the economic fundamentals and market behaviour over the past decade. She has been privileged to live and to work in the world's most exciting financial hubs including Geneva, London and Shanghai.
She has a Bachelor's Degree in Economics and a Master's Degree in Financial Engineering and Risk Management from the University of Lausanne (HEC Lausanne), Switzerland.