Thoughts on EUR/USD at 1.20ish

US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

The EUR/USD has finally dipped back to long-term support around 1.20ish and I see a lot of bearish commentary around it. The bigger picture is still bullish as per the weekly chart, so I will be actively looking to go long on the first sign of a bull signal on the daily or lower time frames.

Thoughts on EUR/USD at 1.20ish - 1

The EUR/USD is potentially following the path of 2017-18 as per the chart. If correct, rates could head toward 1.25+ in the next couple of months or so.

With the EUR/USD at these levels, the EUR/GBP and other euro crosses could find support.

As a side note, this is why I decided that the private group should take profit on the first portion of their short trades on the EUR/GBP. It may be the incorrect decision, but there is nothing wrong with taking +123 to +169 pips profit on this slow-moving pair. The second portion can remain open in case it keeps going lower over time. This is the before/after chart of the EUR/GBP trade:

Thoughts on EUR/USD at 1.20ish - 2Thoughts on EUR/USD at 1.20ish - 3

Going back to the EUR/USD topic, I remain bullish on this pair because of the potential return to normalcy with COVID vaccines slowly being rolled out etc. I also think the ECB is done with providing additional measures. The next move is likely to be tapering of QE, but this won't happen any time soon.

US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Fawad Razaqzada

Experienced financial market analyst, economist and trader. Produces and delivers market commentary and research for Provides premium trade signals to his subscribers. Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010 working for leading global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerages, most recently at and City Index. Having graduated from Brunel University with a degree in economics and leveraging years of financial market experience, Fawad provides retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis on his own website at His comments on the markets are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. Fawad trades his own account and also offers premium trade signals to subscribers, and trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders. He covers a wide range of markets, including major and minor FX pair, key commodities including oil and gold, stock indices and cryptocurrencies.