In last week’s KOG Report we said a breakout looked imminent and once the market had accumulated enough it would. We gave a range of 1865-1835 and suggested that if the price went up into the 1865 region and faced resistance, we would be looking to short the market back down into 1850, 1840 and below that we wanted 1835. We said that if we got to 1835, we would take a majority of the trade of the table and then look for that region to support the price. During the course of the week we decided that the short was enough into the given levels and we would then sit back and monitor the markets. We updated the charts for NFP suggesting again that if that level resisted above, we could see this coming back down into the 1850-55 region where said if it supported we felt it would be an opportunity to go long. As you can see the market played out pretty well compared to the analysis and levels given which should have hopefully given anyone following a decent pip capture.
Due to it being a holiday in the UK we didn’t trade the NFP release, but the move down has closed the daily candle on the 1850 price point.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’ll start by saying we’re going to stick with the plan on the NFP report, however, we can see this giving an undercut low at some point before potentially trying to go back up and target that 1880-85 level. For that reason, we’re going to be taking shorts with caution early part of the week and looking for strong support in the regions below before attempting to go long to target the higher price levels. We’re going to use the same 4H chart we have been using for the last week or so as the levels haven’t really changed due to the range we’re currently playing in.
This week we’ll look for the key support and resistance levels to hold trading shorts level to level if we go down and hoping to get a good entry for the long trade into that 1870, 1875 and above that 1880-85 level. We can expect this to be choppy again so don’t expect a one-way ticket which ever way it goes. The chart shows that we may see some minor resistance at the 1855 level before we then attempt to target the lower support. Its that lower support region which is where we want to see this hold and confirm a rejection or reversal. Once confirmed and we’re confident we feel this level would represent an opportunity to then take the long trade back up to target the higher levels. Please note, breaking and closing below the 1835 level on the daily will change this scenario and lead the price to suffer more losses so risk and money management are really important. We’re still within the range and you can see the market is taking liquidity from both sides so there’s a chance they will give a lower low before then taking it up to give a higher high of the range. That lower range liquidity is sitting around the 1820-25 level so expect the unexpected!
It’s a short one this week as we’ll update the plans and analysis over the course of the week.
Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.