Summary Of 1H: Bitcoin Lost 60%! DAX Decreased By 20% Crude Oil Price Is Ca. 40% Higher Than In The Beginning Of 2022. First Half Of The Year 2022 Showed BTC Has Been Deeply Correlated With Tech Stocks

It would Be Hard To Expect More Positive Scenarios For Black Friday This Year

The first half is finally over, but the pain is certainly here to stay. Economic data looks bad, employment softens, and inflation is up. The S&P500 closed the first half in the bear market, having lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year, while Nasdaq, which is more sensitive to the Fed policy and to the rising interest rates, closed the first half more than 30% down.

Did Gold Withstand Volatility On Markets?

Gold did a good job as a hedge to turmoiled markets, but the rising US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold certainly limited the upside potential of the precious metal.

DAX Lost 20%, FTSE Decreased By "Only" 4%

Bitcoin proved to be an imperfect hedge against both inflation and the falling markets, while the DAX is down by more than 20%, and the FTSE, which benefited from surging oil and commodity prices, could lose its advance. Funnily, Chinese stocks diverged positively in the latest quarter, to catch up the losses for the year. Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index rebounded by more than 65% since the March dip. What’s next?

The pain may not be over, as the Fed is expected to remain as aggressive as needed until it sees a material and a persistent softening in inflation.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

  • 0:00 Intro
  • 0:13 We had a tough first half!
  • 2:13 S&P500 had its worst half since 1970
  • 3:02 Gold, flat
  • 3:48 Bitcoin under pressure
  • 4:51 European stocks down, but Chinese recover
  • 5:43 What could help the risk selloff ease?

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

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It would Be Hard To Expect More Positive Scenarios For Black Friday This Year

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