- OPECs plans to increase their oil output favours the Euro.
- ECBs window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing.
- The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for the USD/CHF currency pair.
German PMI declined for the 3rd month in a row
The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar weakened overnight in the wake of data that showed US payroll rose less than expected in May. The European Union finalised the ban on Russian seaborne oil, with the hope of reaching a 90% decline in imports by the end of 2022. Oil prices rose in the wake of this news, however OPEC indicated its plans to compensate their western allies for the oil lost through the embargo. In addition, the German PMI fell for the third consecutive month.
EUR/USD Price Chart
Post-lockdown growth is slowing in even the largest EU economy.
The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. With German PMI declining for the third consecutive month, rising stagflation and a pessimistic economic outlook within the European Union. Hence, the European Central Banks (ECB) window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing. Originally plans for increasing rates were to begin in the third quarter of this year, however, given the current circumstances, it could be justified to start earlier than originally planned. Although it may be justified, it is unlikely given the ECB president has tried to set out the EU monetary policy plan from the start, despite increased pressure.
EUR/GBP Price Chart
USD/CHF Reflecting mixed signals
The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. The expectation for the month of June for this currency pair is bearish, the US Dollar may be weakening, however, this forecast is based on the trends of the past. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expected to turn hawkish and the fears of the US economy heading into a recession, perhaps the reality will be different from the forecast.
USD/CHF Price Chart
As the US Dollar weakens, investors are turning to the Japanese Yen safe-haven asset. The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals.
USD/JPY Price Chart
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com