Revolution! Monetary Policy - Number Of Rate Hikes This Year Is Shocking!

Monetary Policy from Tailwind to Headwind: Last year I counted 123 rate hikes across 41 central banks… meanwhile already so far this year I’ve counted 67 interest rate hikes across 45 central banks, with the majority of central banks globally now well into rate hike mode.

The latest big new arrival to the rate-hike club was of course the Fed, and most expect a fairly aggressive hiking cycle; potentially with QT starting soon. Incrementally this will all present increasing headwinds to global growth and risk assets.

Indeed, the chart below tracks the net-number of central banks in rate cutting vs rate hiking mode. It maps out the clear policy pivot that occurred last year, and which accelerated this year: towards interest rate hikes and stimulus removal.

If we take this chart literally, the global manufacturing PMI looks set to drop below 50 by the end of the year. Not sure how many 2022 outlook pieces had that on their list!

chart of global manufacturing PMI and monetary policy rate hike tracker -- global growth leading indicator graph

Key point: The global monetary policy pivot presents clear headwinds to growth.

NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/

Best regards,

Callum Thomas

Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts

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Callum Thomas

Head of Research

Callum is the founder and managing shareholder of Topdown Charts. His career background is in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia, with a focus on investment strategy and economics.

Callum has a passion for global economics and asset allocation strategy and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to deploy a blend of factors to build out a holistic picture and raise conviction. This includes valuations, monetary conditions, cyclical indicators, sentiment, and technicals. Callum believes innovation is vital to maintaining an edge through investment research and is on a constant mission to uncover and develop new datasets, indicators, and new ways of looking at the world to drive sensible and profitable decision making by portfolio managers.

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