Recovering into the weekend | Oanda

EUR/USD Faces Resistance at 1.0774 Amid Inflation and Stagflation Concerns

Equity markets are back in positive territory on Friday but I’m struggling to get too excited by the moves we see going into the weekend.

The rebound may partly reflect the scale of the declines we’ve seen in the previous couple of sessions, while the cut to the five-year loan prime rate in China may also be giving global markets a bit of a lift. But ultimately, very little has changed and I expect that will continue to hold these markets back.

The rate cut announced by the PBOC is obviously good news and is clearly targeted a revitalizing the ailing property market which continues to suffer due to the crackdown last year and Covid lockdowns this year. Along with other measures already announced, this could help to revive a hugely important part of the economy.

Whether it’s enough to help China hit its 5.5% growth target this year is another thing. I imagine we may see further stimulus efforts this year in order to try and get close to that as the country is facing numerous headwinds, as every other is around the world right now. What it has that others lack though is room to manoeuvre on both the fiscal and monetary front.

UK retail sales are not a true reflection of what’s to come

The UK is in a very tricky position, regardless of the impression the April retail sales data gave this morning. While spending last month hugely exceeded expectations and was accompanied by a small upward revision in March, we also saw consumer confidence fall to its lowest since records began in 1974. While survey data can be volatile, I expect this is a closer reflection of the squeezed consumer in the UK right now.

The cost-of-living crisis is going to have a big impact on household budgets and will intensify again in October when the energy price cap is lifted once more. Unless the government offers more support, the country is heading for double-digit inflation and a recession. Not exactly consistent with sustainable gains in retail sales.

Can bitcoin hold above USD 30,000?

Bitcoin has been treading water for a number of days now around USD 30,000 which has been interesting given the volatility in other risk assets. That it is being driven by economic rather than interest rate fears may explain it. Less focus on stablecoins may also be helping to contain the bleeding. But while some may be encouraged, it’s not seeing any momentum above USD 30,000 at the minute and the longer that goes on, the more prone it looks to another plunge.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

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EUR/USD Faces Resistance at 1.0774 Amid Inflation and Stagflation Concerns

Craig Erlam

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.