Prices Of Energy Resources In Europe Have Already Started To Fall, The Picture Of Forex And Crypto Market
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Energy resources: OIL, NATGAS
The entire world is heavily dependent on conventional energy sources such as oil petroleum, natural gas or coal, so there is a clear connection between the raw materials energy and inflation. When prices move moderately, producers do not they change react immediately because they can take advantage of economies of scale. The problem occurs in when the price increases several times and the producers' costs have to be passed on to consumers.
As we mentioned earlier, the current situation is reminiscent of the 70s of the last century, when the energy crisis led to an inflationary spiral. As then, so now the supply of oil is strongly limited (initially artificially, and now due to problems in the supply chain and lack of appropriate investment in production capacity). It is true that the supply is slowly growing, but the demand recovers much faster, which has led to a huge increase in raw material prices.
Oil and natural gas prices in Europe have already started to fall from near historic highs.
The question, however, is whether the market is experiencing demand destruction? Stocks of raw materials are at exceptionally low levels, with no greater ones on the horizon investment in the extractive sector, and countries with spare production capacity will take advantage of the current high prices. Therefore, there is a risk of extending the period of highs prices, as it was in the 1970s and in 2011-2014. In addition, when we adjust oil prices for inflation, we can see that after the initial increase at the beginning in the 1970s, the valuation of this raw material remained at a high level until the early 1980s. It is another argument proving that without an adequate increase in supply, high oil prices can stay with us longer.
Forex market: EURUSD, USDJPY
The recent return of higher and volatile global price dynamics has triggered a surge
exchange rate volatility and depreciation of the currencies of countries with the highest inflation rate. In In times of economic uncertainty, investors tend to turn to safe haven currencies (the so-called safe havens of the foreign exchange market), mainly the US dollar. Also and this time it was no different, and the dollar index rebounded from the June 2021 lows by over 20%.
Meanwhile, the trade-weighted index (TWI) remains at elevated levels. This index, adjusted for inflation, measures the strength of the US dollar against the currencies of major partners of the United States. We see that the TWI REER USD index has strengthened significantly in recent years, which may indicate that the dollar is overvalued.
When it comes to EURUSD, however, the situation is more complicated. In mid-July 2022 euros reached parity with the dollar, falling to its lowest level in 20 years. this fall it was triggered not only by the strength of the US currency, but also because of the crisis as a consequence of the war between Russia and Ukraine. High energy prices in Europe have worsened trading conditions in the euro area, leading to an even greater depreciation of the single currency. There is no indication that energy prices will fall in the near future, but if such a scenario materializes, the euro would have a chance to move away from the parity level.
In the case of EURUSD, the market's attention is focused on the weakness of the euro, while in the case of USDJPY monetary policy sets the pace. Since the early 2000s, the Bank of Japan has pursued an ultra-loose policy monetary policy while controlling the bond yield curve. This has not changed even after inflation started to rise. Meanwhile, the Fed turned its stance 180 degrees to strangle inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes. The difference in bond yields is a key factor for this pair, even if the Bank of Japan decides to change its current policy.
Cryptocurrencies: BITCOIN, ETHEREUM
Cryptocurrencies are still a young asset class. The history of Bitcoin goes back a little over 10 years, a most of the remaining cryptocurrencies (so-called altcoins) were created after 2017, which is why the reactions of the cryptocurrency exchange rate to the increase in the level of inflation are not sufficiently known. from this
Therefore, when trying to assess digital asset quotes, it is difficult to rely solely on on historical data.
Due to the tendency of investors to buy cryptocurrencies as part of diversifying their exposure to traditional financial markets, as well as the involvement of institutions in this market, begins to be a visible correlation between the reactions of debt-financed companies and the price of Bitcoin. Movements Cryptocurrency rates in response to rising inflation are beginning to resemble stock market reactions, which based on historical data are a bit easier to track and analyze.
As a rule, rising inflation is not conducive to the valuation of risky assets and becomes a disadvantage for them burden when central banks decide to tighten monetary policy. Rate hikes interest rates, difficulties in obtaining capital and the rising cost of living in a recessionary environment indicate a decrease in risk sentiment and decreases in the valuation of risky assets. having it in mind, the cryptocurrency market will not be helped by rising inflation, which prompts banks to raise Stop. Therefore, even if the trend of cryptocurrency adoption continues - and they are noticeable signals that this is the case - movements on the charts of individual cryptocurrencies may resemble those of US100, only on a larger scale.
Five key facts about cryptocurrency adoption
- BlackRock creates a bitcoin trust fund for US investors institutional and begins cooperation with Coinbase
- JP Morgan creates an open living room inside the Decentraland metaverse and explores the possibilities blockchain technology
- Ethereum processed 1.45 million smart contracts in Q1 2022 vs. 1.16 million in Q4 2021 (up 25%)
- NFT popularity is growing: 7.84 million transactions in OpenSea in Q1 2022 vs. 4.85 million carried out in Q4 2021 (up 61.6%)
- 46 million Americans own Bitcoins and 1 billion people will use cryptocurrencies in over the next 4 years
