Precious Metals Speculator bets for Gold, Copper & Silver hit multi-year lows

Precious Metals Speculator bets for Gold, Copper & Silver hit multi-year lows

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

precious metals open interest futures levels & percents

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. The only precious metals market to have higher speculator bets this week was Palladium with a rise of just 415 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-12,033 contracts) and Silver (-5,752 contracts) with Platinum (-1,428 contracts) and Copper (-1,100 contracts) also having lower bets for the week.

Highlights of the Metals data:

  • Gold speculators bets have dropped for the past two straight weeks and for nine out of the past twelve weeks. These declines have taken a total of -108,627 contracts off the Gold bullish position in past twelve weeks
  • Current Gold speculator position has fallen to lowest level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 162 weeks
  • Silver bets have dropped in nine out of the past eleven weeks (for a total decrease of -41,290 contracts)
  • Silver speculator positions have now fallen to the lowest level in 160 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019
  • Copper speculator positions are in bearish territory for an 11th straight week and speculator bets have fallen by a total of -67,938 contracts since April 5th
  • Copper speculator bets have decreased to the lowest level (currently at -31,796 contracts) in the past 120 weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020

precious metals futures speculators sentiment

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the speculator sentiment for all of the precious metals is near or at the bottom of each of their 3-year ranges. The highest strength score currently is for Copper (19.5 percent) which is in an extreme bearish level for the past three years (under 20 percent). All the other markets also are in extreme bearish levels as well with Gold, Silver and Platinum residing at 3-year lows of 0 percent each.

precious metals speculators futures trends

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-18.3 percent), Silver (-12.3 percent) and Copper (-8.8 percent) are leading the scores to the downside over the past six weeks followed by Platinum (-6.0 percent). Palladium (0.3 percent) is the only precious metals with a positive score although it is barely positive.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-05-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,637,862 0 280,523 0 -304,217 100 23,694 48
Gold 498,210 13 145,660 0 -165,585 100 19,925 0
Silver 140,463 7 5,139 0 -11,622 100 6,483 0
Copper 183,331 15 -31,796 19 31,340 81 456 28
Palladium 7,373 5 -3,410 4 4,104 98 -694 4
Platinum 72,895 44 -2,734 0 -1,670 100 4,404 23
Natural Gas 977,507 0 -130,519 39 91,950 60 38,569 71
Brent 166,711 13 -38,514 47 37,309 55 1,205 26
Heating Oil 264,269 21 6,486 52 -22,775 47 16,289 55
Soybeans 638,675 7 125,491 52 -93,638 56 -31,853 17
Corn 1,331,035 0 260,705 63 -207,441 42 -53,264 12
Coffee 193,731 1 46,787 79 -49,139 25 2,352 14
Sugar 713,245 0 83,512 54 -85,255 52 1,743 10
Wheat 288,754 0 8,384 30 623 61 -9,007 64

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 145,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 23.7 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.0 4.8
– Net Position: 145,660 -165,585 19,925
– Gross Longs: 267,806 118,289 43,933
– Gross Shorts: 122,146 283,874 24,008
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -29.3

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.0 40.0 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.4 48.2 11.4
– Net Position: 5,139 -11,622 6,483
– Gross Longs: 54,841 56,137 22,495
– Gross Shorts: 49,702 67,759 16,012
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.3 13.1 -13.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.5 51.7 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 34.6 8.2
– Net Position: -31,796 31,340 456
– Gross Longs: 54,073 94,749 15,516
– Gross Shorts: 85,869 63,409 15,060
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.5 81.0 27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 8.3 0.6

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.8 38.6 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 40.9 5.9
– Net Position: -2,734 -1,670 4,404
– Gross Longs: 31,920 28,155 8,693
– Gross Shorts: 34,654 29,825 4,289
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.0 6.7 -11.1

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 73.1 11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 61.6 17.4 20.6
– Net Position: -3,410 4,104 -694
– Gross Longs: 1,132 5,389 825
– Gross Shorts: 4,542 1,285 1,519
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.6 97.7 3.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 1.7 -21.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.