Peril Approaching

S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:

(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).

More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

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S&P 500 is getting tired, and may roll over either today or next week only. The 50-day moving average is to provide solid resistance, but its power may not kick in precisely today. Anyway, this is a moment to be cautious. VIX agrees, we‘re to turn higher in volatility, and that means stocks resuming the downswing.

Credit Markets

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HYG looks pretty ominous – I‘m counting on the bulls to give up soon. Coupled with the dollar swinging higher yesterday, the odds start aligning against stock market bulls as much as by the lack of value‘s appreciation.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

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Cryptos refused further upside, and that‘s a sign in its own class. The headwinds are going to toughen, stretching from quite a few real assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum as well.