Orbex's Jing Ren looks into Aussie against greenback - December 2nd

Inflation slowdown may let Reserve Bank of Australia go for 50bp or inaction

Orbex's Jing Ren looks into Aussie against greenback - December 2nd - 1

It is likely that the AUDUSD pair will form a bearish triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ in the long term, where the primary wave Ⓩ is a simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). The intermediate wave (B) of this zigzag took the form of a simple bullish zigzag A-B-C.

At the moment, an impulse wave (C) is being formed, which consists of minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5. Minor wave 3 consists of five sub-waves of the minute degree.

Most likely, the development of the minor corrective wave 4 in the form of a minute double zigzag was completed not so long ago. Thus, the market may continue to move down in the impulse wave 5.

The currency is expected to decline to the previous low of 0.617, marked by the impulse 3.

Orbex's Jing Ren looks into Aussie against greenback - December 2nd - 2

However, corrective wave 4 may not have been fully completed.

Bulls could build only two parts of correction 4, that is, we can see fully formed sub-waves ⓦ-ⓧ, and the sub-wave ⓨ is still being built, but is already close to its completion.

In the near future, the market may grow to 0.689. At that level, the entire corrective wave 4 will be at 76.4% along the Fibonacci lines of previous bearish impulse 3. Then, after the full completion of wave 4, we can expect a decline in the minor wave 5.

Inflation slowdown may let Reserve Bank of Australia go for 50bp or inaction

Jing Ren

Jing-Ren has extensive experience in currency and commodities trading. He began his career in metal sales and trading at Societe Generale in London. Later on he worked as a senior analyst within the FX brokerage industry where he developed strategies in trading and risk management. With solid understanding of market dynamics he founded Wensfer to offer research and asset management services.