The Norwegian economy and the actions of the country's central bank, Norges Bank, have been closely observed amidst the challenges posed by inflation and its impact on the Norwegian krone. In light of the latest data from the Norwegian economy, market participants eagerly seek insights into the central bank's response and its implications for the currency.

According to Jakob Westh Christensen, eToro Nordic Market Analyst, Norway took early action in addressing inflation concerns. When inflation emerged globally towards the end of 2021, the ECB and the Fed viewed it as transitory and delayed taking action. In contrast, Norges Bank promptly implemented its first interest rate hike in September 2021. Although the country has managed to keep inflation below double-digit levels experienced by other European nations, recent data paints a concerning picture. In May, inflation in Norway rose to 6.7% from 6.4% the previous month, indicating a worrying upward trend.

FXMAG.COM: 

How would you comment on the latest data from the Norwegian economy and the actions of the central bank there, and what about the Norwegian krone as a result? 

Jakob Westh Christensen, eToro Nordic Market Analyst said:

Towards the end of 2021, when inflation began to emerge around the world, and the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) saw the inflation as transitory and failed to act, Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), acted promptly by implementing its first interest rate hike in September 2021. Despite successfully keeping inflation below the double-digit levels experienced by many European countries, the Scandinavian country has yet to witness the same decline in inflation as most other countries are currently experiencing. On the contrary, the latest data shows a concerning increase in May, with inflation rising to 6.7% from 6.4% the previous month.

Thanks to its self-sufficient energy production and government support, Norway has been shielded from the severe energy price spikes that affected many other European countries. But their tight labour market and the weak currency continue to fuel inflation. The country, with a population of 5.5 million, has a tight labour market with an unemployment rate of just 3.5%, experiencing robust wage growth. At the same time, the depreciation of the Norwegian krone against the US dollar and the euro further complicates the situation for the import-dependent economy, driving up the costs of everyday imported goods.

The decline in oil prices explains part of the oil-exporting nation’s weakened currency. But also, the diminishing interest rate differential with major economies like the US and the Eurozone reduces the attractiveness of holding the Norwegian currency for investors.

To counter the weakening of the Norwegian krone and combat inflation, Norges Bank raised the policy rate by 0.50 percentage points to 3.75% in late June, providing some support for the currency. However, the central bank acknowledges that the fight is far from over and has indicated the likelihood of another rate hike at the upcoming meeting in August, with the policy rate potentially rising to 4.25% during the autumn. While Norges Bank was the first to enter the battle against inflation, it might turn out that they will also be the last to leave it.