Not only does gas price declines in Europe, but also in the USA, but we could say it's not in favour of indices. Euro seems to be in an unclear situation and on the cryptomarket, Porsche is set to launch its NFT collection. FXMAG.COM team once again reaches out to FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich to have a detailed look at the mentioned threads.
Natural Gas (NATGAS) plunges, have markets got calmer at last?
It makes sense to estimate that lower energy prices would be good for markets as it mitigates inflation risks while reviving economic growth - the best combination for markets. However, US indices rallied throughout October and November, while the US gas price first dipped from $6.9 to $5.5 by the end of October but then soared to $8, along with increased traction in risky assets by the end of November in the last two months. Over the past two weeks, the gas has returned to $5.5. Half of that time, stocks were rising, and half of that time, they were declining. Germany's DAX40 is up 22% from its lows at the start of October and has retreated 1.8% from its six-month high since early December. The rise has occurred despite the euro's strengthening, and the decline comes along with the fall in oil and gas prices.
Falling gas is not helping the indices right now, as the fear of falling demand due to a weakening economy is behind the decline, which is equally bad news for both stocks and commodities.
Are you of the opinion that EUR/USD price movement suggests a trend reversal?
EURUSD has been rising since late September, although it has occasionally stumbled. Important technical signals of a broken trend were the strong strengthening at the upward cross of the 50-day moving average, which is a signal of capitulation for position traders. At the end of November, the EURUSD had lingered near the 200-day MA for a long time, but on November's last trading day, it crossed up this line.
Strictly speaking, the EURUSD recovery fits into the Fibonacci retracement pattern, touching 61.8% of the decline from the peak in May 2021 to the bottom in September 2022. Also, 1.05 looks like a nice round where there might be another round of profit taking from the last 10-figure rally.
Nonetheless, the dollar rally looks outdated, having exhausted the fundamental drivers. Europe has begun to catch up with the US regarding rate hikes, and signals from the Fed are getting softer.
Porsche has just announced their own NFTs. It's one of the most prominent brands in the world - would it mean NFT market isn't 'dead' yet and prices may bounce some time in the future?
This market is not dead, but just hibernated during this crypto winter. At some point in the future, the market will change its pessimistic attitude towards NFT. Markets are cyclical, and while we shouldn't expect a repeat or intensification of the NFT euphoria as it was in 2021, the overall capitalisation of this market could almost certainly rewrite its peaks in the next three years. Admittedly, there will be fewer random people in this market as it increasingly takes on the traditional traits of collectables markets. The only difference is that NFTs are collections of unique digital goods.