Netflix (NFLX) slumped 8.63%, as a media report said the video streaming firm is refunding advertisers after missing views targets

National Bank of Hungary's Shift: Moving Away from Autopilot Monetary Policy
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER
December 16, 2022
 
 
   
 
 
 
Pre-Market Session
News Sentiment
Technical Views
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot
 
Dax (Eurex) 14,030.00
+45.00 (+0.32%)
Bearish Read the analysis
13,925.00
14,125.00
 
 
FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Bullish Read the analysis
7,474.00
7,420.00
 
 
S&P 500 (CME) 3,928.00
+0.75 (+0.02%)
Bearish Read the analysis
3,900.00
3,956.00
 
 
Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,467.25
+10.25 (+0.09%)
Bearish Read the analysis
11,400.00
11,540.00
 
 
Dow Jones (CME) 33,449.00
+13.00 (+0.04%)
Bearish Read the analysis
33,240.00
33,680.00
 
 
Crude Oil (WTI) 76.07
-0.04 (-0.05%)
Bearish Read the analysis
75.40
77.10
 
 
Gold 1,779.26
+2.403 (+0.14%)
Bearish Read the analysis
1,766.00
1,790.00
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
  MARKET WRAP  
 
 
 
 
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stocks closed sharply lower as lower-than-expected sales data stirred recession fears among investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 764 points (-2.25%) to 33,202, the S&P 500 declined 99 points (-2.49%) to 3,895, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 395 points (-3.37%) to 11,345.

U.S. data showed that retail sales declined 0.6% on month in November (vs +0.2% expected). The latest number of initial jobless claims posted at 211,000 (vs 235,000 expected).

Also, the New York State manufacturing index sank to -11.2 in December (vs +1.0 expected, +4.5 in November), while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index improved to -13.8 in December (vs -7.0 expected, -19.4 in November).

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased a further 2.9 basis points to 3.448%.

Technology hardware & equipment (-4.43%), media (-4.39%), and semiconductors (-3.95%) sectors led the market lower.

NetFlix (NFLX) slumped 8.63%, as a media report said the video streaming firm is refunding advertisers after missing views targets.

Nvidia (NVDA) declined 4.09% after the semiconductor stock was rated "reduce" at HSBC. 

AT&T (T) slid 2.28% after the telecom stock was downgraded to "equal-weight" at Morgan Stanley.

Novavax (NVAX) plunged 34.3% after the biotech firm announced a capital hike.

On the other hand, Tesla (TSLA) edged up 0.55%. Regulatory documents showed that CEO Elon Musk sold 22 million shares in the electric-vehicle maker worth $3.58 billion.

Lennar (LEN) rose 3.82% as the largest U.S. homebuilder reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.

European stocks were also heavy. The DAX 40 fell 3.28%, the CAC 40 declined 3.09%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.93%.

U.S. WTI crude futures declined $1.00 to $76.26 a barrel.

Gold price lost $30 to $1,776 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies. The dollar index advanced to 104.64.

EUR/USD fell 58 pips to 1.0624. As expected, the European Central Bank raise its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0-2.5%. However, the central bank said it would raise interest rates "significantly" further to tame inflation.

GBP/USD dropped 250 pips (-2.01%) to 1.2176. As expected, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%. The central bank stated that it would "respond forcefully" in case of persistent inflationary pressures.

USD/JPY jumped 232 pips (+1.71%) to 137.80.

AUD/USD declined 165 pips (-2.40%)to 0.6699.

USD/CHF gained 40 pips to 0.9285, and USD/CAD climbed 123 pips to 1.3671.

Bitcoin traded lower to $17,400.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, the U.S. dollar softened slightly against other major currencies.

USD/JPY declined to 137.31. The Jibun Bank manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 48.8 in December (vs 49.6 expected).

AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6717.

EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0645, and GBP/USD climbed back to 1.2204.

Gold price was up to $1,780 an ounce.

Bitcoin held up well at $17,400.

Expected Today

In the U.K., the GfK consumer confidence index posted at -42 in December (vs -43 expected).

Also, U.K. retails sales are expected to edge up 0.3% on month in November.

December S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index will be posted for the Eurozone (46.6 expected), Germany (45.9 expected), France (48.6 expected), the U.K. (46.3 expected) and the U.S. (48.2 expected).
 
 
 
 
  UK MARKET NEWS  
 
 
 
 
UK: The GfK consumer confidence index posted at -42 in December (vs -43 expected).

BT Group, a telecoms company, announced that it will be combining its Global and Enterprise units into a single B2B unit called BT Business, saying: "The combined unit will enhance value for all our B2B customers, strengthen our competitive position, and deliver material synergies."

CRH Plc, a building materials company, said it has established a new venture capital unit called CRH Ventures, adding: "With access to a $250 million venturing and innovation fund to invest, CRH Ventures will partner with construction and climate technology companies, operating across the construction value chain."

Shell, an oil giant, and its Dutch joint-venture partner Eneco has won the right to build an offshore wind farm with a capacity of 756 megawatts in the North Sea, announced the Dutch government.

Basic Resources, travel & leisure and oil & gas shares fell most in London on Wednesday.

From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (-3.16% to 155.2p), Croda International (-1.88% to 6884p) crossed under their 50-day moving average.

From a technical point of view, Diageo (-2.36% to 3675.5p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.
 
 
 
 
  ECONOMIC CALENDAR    
 
 
 
Time Event Forecast Importance
 
02:00
GB
Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
0.3%
HIGH
 
 
02:00
GB
Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
-5.3%
MEDIUM
 
 
02:00
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Nov)
0.2%
MEDIUM
 
 
02:00
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Nov)
-6.1%
LOW
 
 
04:30
GB
S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (Dec)
48.3
MEDIUM
 
 
04:30
GB
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (Dec)
46.3
MEDIUM
 
 
04:30
GB
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (Dec)
47.7
LOW
 
 
09:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Dec)
48.2
MEDIUM
 
 
09:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Dec)
47.8
MEDIUM
 
 
09:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Dec)
48
MEDIUM
 
 
13:00
US
Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Dec/16)
 
HIGH
 
 
13:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (Dec/16)
 
LOW
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
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  NEWS SENTIMENT  
 
 
 
 
HSBC Holdings PLC
492.65 GBp
 
 
 
 
sentiment
 
 
 
↑ ↑
↑ ↑
↓ ↑
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AstraZeneca PLC
11,360.00 GBp
 
 
 
 
sentiment
 
 
 
↑ ↑
↑ ↑
↓ ↑
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Barclays PLC
155.20 GBp
 
 
 
 
sentiment
 
 
 
↑ ↑
↑ ↑
↓ ↑
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standard Chartered PLC
604.60 GBp
 
 
 
 
sentiment
 
 
 
↑ ↑
↑ ↑
↓ ↑
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rio Tinto PLC
5,657.00 GBp
 
 
 
 
sentiment
 
 
 
↑ ↑
↑ ↑
↓ ↑
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  TECHNICAL VIEWS  
 
 

 
 
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
 
Pivot:
1.0615
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 1.0615 with targets at 1.0685 & 1.0710 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.0615 look for further downside with 1.0590 & 1.0570 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI shows upside momentum.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: under pressure.
 
Pivot:
3879.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 3879.00 with targets at 3825.00 & 3794.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 3879.00 look for further upside with 3899.00 & 3923.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is mixed.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: expect 79.30.
 
Pivot:
82.20
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 82.20 with targets at 80.10 & 79.30 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 82.20 look for further upside with 83.20 & 84.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI calls for a drop.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
National Bank of Hungary's Shift: Moving Away from Autopilot Monetary Policy

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