Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate.

The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts).

The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67
EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24
GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27
JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27
CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47
CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45
AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30
NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30
MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58
RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18
BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97
Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3
– Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617
– Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942
– Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5
– Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166
– Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321
– Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2
– Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792
– Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551
– Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9
– Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803
– Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407
– Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3
– Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614
– Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127
– Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3
– Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446
– Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817
– Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4
– Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401
– Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865
– Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1
– Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918
– Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665
– Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9
– Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433
– Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306
– Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0
– Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636
– Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541
– Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9
– Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606
– Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855
– Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461
– Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6
– Net Position: 80 -517 437
– Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198
– Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.