India Anticipates 8% YoY Drop in Sugar Production for 2023/24 Amid Adverse Weather Conditions

BRL: Positive Outlook Amid Fiscal Focus and Successful ESG Offering

Agriculture – India sugar production to fall 8% YoY in 2023/24

The first advance estimates from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) show that gross sugar production (including sugar diverted for ethanol production) in India could fall to around 33.7mt in 2023/24 compared to around 36.6mt in 2022/23 as adverse weather was seen impacting yields. The total acreage under sugarcane is expected to be around 5.7m hectares in 2023/24. Sugar allocation for ethanol production was around 4.1mt for last season and a similar allocation this year would keep net sugar production at around 29.6mt. While net sugar production is sufficient to meet the domestic demand of around 27.9mt, sugar exports from the country could fall significantly in the current season.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that the Ukrainian winter grains plantations rose to 4.2m hectares as of 31 October, in line with last year’s plantation. This includes winter wheat crop plantings rising by 6% YoY to 3.7m hectares for the above-mentioned period.

Weekly data from the European Commission shows that soft wheat exports for the season so far fell 24% YoY to 9.6mt as of 27 October, down from 12.6mt reported in a similar period a year ago. The major destinations for these shipments were Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria. Meanwhile, the nation's corn imports fell 41% YoY to 5.6mt in the season so far.

BRL: Positive Outlook Amid Fiscal Focus and Successful ESG Offering

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Joseph Jeffriess, Market Analyst in Eightcap
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