Growth In China's Trade Balance. Significant Declines In Major Sectors Of Europe And Great Britain

Upcoming Corporate Earnings Reports: Ashtead, GameStop, and DocuSign - September 5-7, 2023

China is making up for its situation with overdue reports. Today, the market is mainly focused on PMI results from various sectors and various countries.

Positive results from China

From 3:30 a.m. CET to 4:00 a.m. CET, China released a ton of reports. Most of them show positive results.

The results for exports are positive, with Chinese esports falling from 18.0% in August to 7.1%. This was a drastic decline and it also fell to 5.7%, but was higher than expected (4.1%).

The trading result was also high despite a 0.3% rise in Imports. The balance rose from 79.39B to 84.74B. Because imports continued and exports were higher than expected. Such significant growth is good for the Chinese economy.

The growth of the economy confirms the positive result of GDP for the third quarter (Q3). The core GDP increased from 0.4% to 3.9%, and the quarterly (QoQ) from a negative level of -2.7% to 3.9%.

The production sector has also grown significantly. The current reading of the unit is at the level of 6.3%. Which means that this sector has grown once again.

One of the negative signals from the Chinese economy is the unemployment rate. It was expected to fall by 0.1% but increased from 5.3% to 5.5%.

French PMI

The readings from France were not that positive. The Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector turned out to be positive. The indicator recorded a slight increase by 0.3%. The current reading is at 47.4 against the forecast 47.1.

There has been a decline in the serivices sector. True, the decline was expected, but the current result has not met expectations. Currently, the Services PMI for France is 51.3. It fell from 52.9 and the projected decline was at 51.5.

European PMI’s

For the European Union region, PMI indicators fell. Services PMI fell as expected to 48.2 against previous reading at 48.8. This is a slight decrease, but has an impact on the currency position. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI index dropped significantly from the level of 48.4 to the level of 46.6.

Given the current situation in the euro zone, declines were expected.

German PMI

For the same sectors as Europe and France, Germany published its PMI. Contrary to France, Services PMI was positive, ie higher than expected (44.7) and reached the level of 44.9. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for Germany dropped significantly from 47.8 to 45.7.

In both cases, these were declines as expected. The difference is that at some point it was higher than expected.

UK PMI

The United Kingdom, like the rest of the old continent, has published reports on the Services and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Both readings were lower than expected. Similarly to the above-mentioned regions (Germany, France, EU), declines were forecast. In the UK, Services PMI dropped from 50.0 to 47.5 and manufacturing from 48.4 to 46.6.

Today's readings show a significant deterioration in these sectors, which negatively affects the exchange rate of the British currency (GBP).

USA PMI

America, like countries on the old continent, will publish PMI reports in the afternoon (15:45 CET). The US also expects a decline, but less significant. For Services PMI it is expected to drop from 49.3 to 49.2. A drop of 0.1 will not significantly affect the appearance of the currency and the sector. In contrast, the manufacturing sector is expected to drop by 1.0. The last reading of the indicator was at 52.0.

Speeches

Two important speeches are scheduled for today.

The first one will take place at 16:15 CET. David Ramsden, member of the Bank of England, will speak. In the present situation of the UK, his speech can give concrete indications on the way forward in the field of motor policy.

The next and last speech of the dishes will be from the American overseas. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen is set to speak at 17:00 CET. She speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and her speeches are often used to signal administration policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments.

Summary:

From the above information, we can conclude that the situation is generally very unfavorable. And the European Union and the United Kingdom may face a severe recession. Other regions of the world, despite the deteriorating situation, are doing much better than the countries of the old continent.

  • 3:51 CET Chinese Exports
  • 3:52 CET Chinese Imports
  • 3:53 CET Chinese Trade Balance
  • 4:00 CET Chinese GDP
  • 4:00 CET Chinese Unemployment Rate
  • 9:15 CET France Services And Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
  • 9:30 CET German Services and Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 CET European Services and Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:30 CET UK Services and Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:45 CET U.S. Services And Manufacturing PMI
  • 16:15 CET MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • 17:00 CET U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks

Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Upcoming Corporate Earnings Reports: Ashtead, GameStop, and DocuSign - September 5-7, 2023

Kamila Szypuła

Writer

Kamila has a bachelors degree in economics and a master's degree in finance and accounting, specializing in banking and financial consulting

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