Government Bond Auctions: Italy, Germany, and Portugal Offerings

oday, Italy will sell EUR 3.5-4bn of the new BTP 4% Nov30 and will reopen BTP 3.85%

Sep26 for EUR 2.75-3.25bn, BTP 4.5% Oct53 for EUR 1-1.5bn and BTP 5% Sep40 for EUR 0.75-1bn. The auction size will be EUR 8-9.75bn, in line with its endof-August auction. Reopenings for specialists worth EUR 2.4bn will be particularly valuable due to tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Yesterday, BTP Nov30 was trading at 4.15% on the gray market, 6bp higher than the previous benchmark (BTP 3.7% Jun30). We like the new 7Y benchmark in a 5/7/10Y fly, whereas a 3/5Y steepener is appealing in a medium/long-term horizon.

With respect to extra-long bonds on auction, BTP Oct53 remains cheap in relative-value terms, reflecting future supply pressure and lower convexity, while BTP Sep40 is fairly priced. A 10/30Y flattener remains an interesting defensive trade from a tactical perspective, especially after the recent steepening. For further information on the auction, see our Primary Market Focus – Italy issues new BTP Nov30 in an appealing area of the curve.

Today, Germany will reopen Bund Aug52 and Bund 1.8% Aug53 for a total of EUR 2.5bn. Bund Aug52 was last sold via auction a month ago, whereas Bund Aug53 was last tapped via syndication on 29 August. The deal worth EUR 3bn was well received. Indeed, Bund Aug53 was sold at Bund Aug52 +7.5bp and is now trading 6bp higher, in line with the spread before the transaction. On the other hand, the extra-long end of the Bund curve has underperformed over the past month, with the 10/30Y spread steepening by 5bp to 12bp.

Today, Portugal will reopen PGB 1.65% Jul32 and PGB 0.9% Oct35 for EUR 0.75-1bn.