The British pound remains under pressure. GBP/USD is in negative territory today, following back-to-back losing sessions. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2439, down 0.45% on the day.
Will US inflation drop?
The highlight of the week will be US inflation for May. Headline inflation is expected at 8.3% (unchanged), while Core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. If inflation does indeed drop, there will likely be voices proclaiming that the long-sought inflation peak is finally here. It would, however, be premature to assume that inflation is on a downswing based on one reading alone. Still, there is plenty of anticipation around the inflation release, such that it could be a binary outcome for USD/CAD – if inflation outperforms, Fed hiking expectations will rise. If, however, inflation drops, we could see a move to sell US dollars.
UK inflation expectations rise
It was a light data calendar this week out of the UK. One release that was noteworthy was Inflation Expectations, released earlier today. The BoE survey found that inflation expectations for the next 12 months had risen to 4.6%, up from 4.3% n February. Inflation expectations for 2 years and 5 years were also higher, which is clearly a worrying trend. The danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored could manifest into actual inflation continuing to accelerate. CPI hit 9% in April, up from 7.0% in March, and the BoE has stated that we could see double-digit inflation.
Asides from inflation, there are plenty of worries for investors with regard to the UK economy. Prime Minister Johnson may be on his way out after a disappointing showing at a non-confidence vote and there is trouble brewing with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. This points to a bumpy road for the British pound in the short term.
- GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2537 and 1.2614
- There is weak support at 1.2413, followed by support at 1.2336
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