Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
The test of 1.0144 took place at the moment when the MACD went down quite a lot from zero, limiting the downside potential of the pair. Some time later, another test happened, but this time the MACD line was already recovering from the oversold area. This seemed to be a good signal to buy, however, it only led to losses as the euro turned up only in the afternoon. The test of 1.0170, which occurred when the MACD line was far from zero, did not allow further purchases in the market.
EUR/USD was under pressure because of yesterday's report on business sentiment and present situation in Germany. But by afternoon, there was a bullish correction in the pair, thanks to the data on the US real estate market, which lowered demand for dollar.
Ahead is the report on Q2 GDP of the Euro area, which, if not revised for the worse, will raise the price of euro. The unemployment report, meanwhile, will be of little interest to the market.
No less important data is the report on retail sales in the US as a decrease in it will not only indicate an impending recession, but also harm dollar in the short term. There will also be the minutes of the Fed meeting, which will shed light on how the central bank plans to further raise interest rates. A less aggressive approach will play in the favor of risky assets. The speech of FOMC member Michelle Bowman will not be of great interest.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0185 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0219. Although there is little chance for a large rally today, good data on the eurozone economy could prompt a rise to new highs.
Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0152, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0185 and 1.0219.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0152 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0107. Pressure will return if the upcoming statistics in the Euro area fell short of forecasts.
Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0185, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0152 and 1.0107.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
