Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

The Price Of EUR/USD Pair Broke Through The Trend Line

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks.

The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy.

Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts).


Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58
EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29
GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29
JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32
CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26
CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44
AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46
NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21
MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92
Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8
– Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789
– Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605
– Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7
– Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914
– Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138
– Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9
– Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067
– Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446
– Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9
– Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610
– Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605
– Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3
– Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393
– Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596
– Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6
– Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334
– Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660
– Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4
– Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446
– Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659
– Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8
– Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650
– Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762
– Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3
– Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694
– Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396
– Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7
– Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354
– Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372
– Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6

 

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6
– Net Position: 403 -503 100
– Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033
– Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Price Of EUR/USD Pair Broke Through The Trend Line

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