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A Technical Look At The Movement Of The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair

The week starts on a positive note after the rally we saw in the US stocks before last week’s closing bell. European futures hint at a positive open. The US 10-year yield stabilized around the 2.75% mark, and the US dollar index is now back to its 50-DMA level, giving some sigh of relief to the FX markets overall.

Bonds and Equities

One interesting thing is that we observe that the equities and bonds stopped moving together since the 10-year yield hit 3% threshold, suggesting that investors started moving capital to less risky bonds if they quit equities, instead of selling everything and sitting on cash.

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US Jobs Data, Expensive Crude Oil

 

That’s one positive sign in terms of broader risk appetite and should help assessing a bottom near the actual levels. But the end of the equity selloff depends on economic data. Released on Friday, the US PCE index fell from 6.6 to 6.3% in April. Due this week, the US jobs data, and the wages growth will take the center stage in the Fed talk. Weak dollar pushes the major peers higher, but the rising oil prices preoccupy investors this Monday. The barrel of US crude is above $117, and the news flow suggests further positive pressure. But till where?

 

Watch the full episode to find out more!

  • 0:00 Intro
  • 0:24 Market update
  • 1:04 Equity, bond correlation is down since US 10-yield hit 3%!
  • 2:58 Economic data is key: what to watch this week?
  • 4:22 BoC to raise rates
  • 5:09 EURUSD pushes higher
  • 6:10 Oil under positive pressure: OPEC, UK windfall tax
  • 9:19 Corporate calendar: GME, HP earnings, Amazon stock split

Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

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A Technical Look At The Movement Of The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair

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